***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.5 13.6 82.4 53.7 46.5 3.6 6.0 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.5 4.2 12.9 88.3 52.8 49.0 1.2 3.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.7 6.2 12.7 76.9 49.7 44.9 3.4 6.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.3 4.6 11.0 57.4 38.8 35.1 4.1 6.4 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.6 11.7 66.0 41.2 38.1 4.3 5.6 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 1.3 0.3 8.6 51.8 28.1 29.4 1.8 3.5 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.4 2.4 12.5 87.3 49.9 48.6 1.3 2.4 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 6.4 6.8 9.1 48.3 29.7 28.8 7.8 13.1 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.6 12.1 70.8 44.3 40.5 0.8 4.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.8 3.0 10.9 59.1 36.1 34.2 2.1 7.0 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.3 1.8 9.8 56.5 37.4 33.7 1.4 3.2 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 1.3 2.7 8.5 50.8 31.5 30.5 2.8 3.8 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.2 3.1 9.8 56.0 31.2 31.6 3.5 7.9 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.8 8.6 16.9 82.4 51.3 45.1 3.7 8.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.0 1.9 8.0 45.5 36.1 32.2 1.2 4.3 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.2 4.5 10.2 58.7 36.4 33.8 3.3 5.6 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.1 13.8 95.7 55.9 52.7 0.9 2.0 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 2.8 2.6 12.3 63.2 37.6 35.9 1.6 6.1 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.8 4.9 13.4 87.5 53.2 48.4 1.8 4.0 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 1.0 1.2 10.5 45.8 26.5 26.7 2.3 3.5 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 1.3 2.4 12.3 71.3 46.0 41.7 1.9 2.8 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 4.2 4.0 15.7 102.8 58.3 54.7 1.4 2.6 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.8 5.6 14.1 85.7 53.5 47.2 1.4 5.2 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.0 7.1 13.8 73.9 44.8 41.6 2.0 8.2 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.4 5.5 14.0 76.0 48.8 43.4 2.2 5.7 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 1.1 0.3 8.4 49.4 24.9 28.2 0.8 3.3 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.1 4.9 13.9 81.7 52.2 46.0 1.7 4.7 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.5 2.3 9.3 52.1 37.1 33.3 2.0 3.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 4.1 4.7 11.9 57.0 33.5 32.6 4.6 10.3 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.7 4.8 12.6 84.2 51.2 47.7 1.3 4.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------