***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 13.6 14.7 13.1 2.3 81.3 76.7 11.2 12.0 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 14.1 15.2 13.0 2.3 82.5 77.1 10.7 12.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 14.2 15.3 13.4 2.3 79.8 75.3 11.4 12.5 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 6.3 7.2 10.6 2.5 79.1 75.9 3.6 4.7 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 14.3 14.8 11.5 2.1 75.3 72.1 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 12.9 13.8 9.7 2.1 76.8 71.3 10.4 11.3 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 13.9 14.9 13.0 2.3 82.8 77.4 10.4 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 2.7 3.3 9.6 1.6 73.0 67.2 0.3 1.5 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.7 12.2 2.1 76.4 72.1 11.6 12.5 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 14.0 14.4 10.6 1.7 72.4 67.6 11.3 12.5 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.7 11.7 2.1 77.0 71.7 11.5 12.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 13.5 14.2 10.8 1.9 77.3 70.8 11.0 11.9 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 14.4 15.1 10.7 1.9 76.1 70.6 11.8 12.7 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 14.5 15.4 12.1 1.9 77.7 70.4 11.5 13.0 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 14.1 15.3 12.2 2.8 84.0 79.1 11.5 11.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 14.7 15.6 11.1 2.1 78.0 72.3 11.9 13.1 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 13.3 14.3 12.7 2.2 82.6 77.0 10.0 11.5 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 13.6 14.1 10.1 1.7 72.5 67.2 11.0 12.1 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 13.9 15.2 13.2 2.3 81.7 76.4 10.9 12.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.7 9.4 7.3 1.3 69.1 64.4 6.3 7.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 14.2 14.8 13.0 2.1 77.3 73.2 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 13.9 15.3 12.7 2.1 80.8 75.1 11.1 11.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 14.6 15.6 13.4 2.3 80.9 75.6 11.4 13.0 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 14.2 14.9 12.1 2.0 76.8 70.6 11.3 12.6 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 14.0 14.7 11.8 2.3 80.1 75.6 11.3 12.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 13.9 15.1 9.9 2.0 80.0 73.0 11.4 12.3 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 14.2 15.0 12.5 2.3 80.3 76.0 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 14.2 15.1 11.3 2.6 81.5 76.5 11.8 12.2 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 8.8 8.9 9.2 1.6 72.0 66.8 6.2 7.4 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 14.1 15.0 13.1 2.3 81.9 76.8 10.7 12.2 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------