***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 13.1 14.5 13.3 1.9 68.2 64.1 10.8 12.2 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.4 14.1 13.2 2.0 70.6 65.3 10.3 11.6 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.6 13.6 1.8 67.3 62.9 10.5 12.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 6.2 8.0 10.9 1.7 65.8 62.1 1.5 5.4 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.9 11.5 1.4 64.8 59.9 9.9 13.0 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.1 14.2 9.4 1.3 62.6 57.6 7.8 12.0 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 12.3 14.4 13.3 2.0 71.7 65.8 10.2 11.6 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.9 3.5 9.8 1.1 61.5 57.5 -1.4 0.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.6 14.7 11.9 1.4 64.5 59.4 9.8 12.5 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.6 14.4 10.7 1.2 62.1 58.1 9.1 12.4 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.8 11.3 1.3 63.6 58.8 9.4 12.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.6 14.4 10.7 1.2 62.6 58.2 8.3 12.5 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.9 15.1 9.9 1.2 63.3 58.4 9.0 12.6 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.2 11.9 1.4 63.0 59.6 11.0 12.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 14.2 15.1 11.7 1.9 69.2 63.7 10.5 13.7 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.6 15.5 10.8 1.4 63.4 59.3 9.7 13.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.4 13.1 13.1 1.9 70.6 65.2 9.6 10.7 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.8 10.3 1.3 61.9 57.9 9.1 12.0 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.7 13.7 13.4 1.9 68.6 64.6 10.5 11.8 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.7 9.6 7.4 1.0 61.7 56.8 4.0 7.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.5 12.8 1.6 65.7 60.8 10.4 12.9 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.4 13.9 12.9 1.8 67.6 63.6 10.5 11.6 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.2 14.1 13.5 1.8 65.3 63.4 10.9 12.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.6 14.3 11.9 1.4 63.5 59.1 10.8 12.5 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.4 14.8 11.7 1.8 67.6 63.4 10.1 12.6 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.9 14.7 9.7 1.3 64.9 59.3 8.5 11.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.3 14.5 12.6 1.9 68.9 64.2 10.5 12.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.4 15.3 11.1 1.7 66.0 61.7 9.9 13.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.2 9.3 1.2 62.1 57.6 4.1 7.4 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.5 14.0 13.3 2.0 69.7 65.0 10.5 11.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------