***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 11.7 13.1 11.3 1.6 65.4 61.2 10.5 11.1 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 11.6 14.0 11.3 1.5 65.2 60.9 10.3 10.8 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.4 11.4 1.3 62.7 59.0 10.6 12.4 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 4.7 5.4 8.6 1.9 65.9 63.3 1.9 4.4 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 13.1 13.4 9.6 1.3 61.7 59.1 10.2 12.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.8 7.9 1.4 63.3 60.4 8.7 10.7 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 11.4 13.8 11.3 1.5 65.3 61.6 9.4 10.6 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.0 2.1 7.7 0.9 58.7 56.5 -0.9 1.4 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.9 12.9 10.3 1.2 60.1 58.2 10.2 12.5 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.8 8.6 0.9 57.3 56.0 9.9 12.6 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.2 9.8 1.3 60.7 59.0 9.8 12.8 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.3 8.9 1.2 62.0 58.8 9.2 11.9 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.0 9.0 1.1 61.9 58.1 10.4 12.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.5 10.2 1.1 57.6 56.6 10.8 12.8 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 13.9 13.7 10.6 2.3 71.0 67.0 9.4 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.4 9.3 1.4 62.4 59.8 10.3 12.9 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 11.1 13.0 11.0 1.5 64.9 61.3 9.2 10.4 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.9 8.1 0.9 57.3 55.5 9.4 12.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 12.4 13.9 11.3 1.4 64.1 60.2 10.3 11.7 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 8.0 5.6 0.5 56.6 53.5 5.1 6.9 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.1 11.0 1.2 60.2 58.2 10.7 12.5 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 12.4 14.0 11.0 1.3 64.1 59.6 10.1 11.8 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 12.9 13.6 11.4 1.4 62.1 59.3 10.6 12.3 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.4 10.1 1.1 59.5 56.5 10.6 12.7 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.9 9.9 1.6 64.6 61.4 9.7 11.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.6 13.0 8.0 1.2 64.8 59.1 9.8 12.1 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 11.6 13.5 10.7 1.5 64.9 61.1 10.1 10.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 13.4 13.7 9.5 2.0 68.0 64.3 9.4 13.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.2 7.2 0.7 56.8 54.4 4.2 7.5 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 11.6 13.5 11.3 1.5 64.8 60.9 10.0 10.9 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------