***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 13.2 14.6 14.4 5.1 89.8 86.3 7.4 11.5 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 13.1 14.0 14.2 4.9 89.2 85.5 7.6 11.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 13.7 15.3 15.0 5.3 90.0 85.5 8.5 12.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 6.0 8.5 11.8 5.6 91.7 88.6 0.8 3.5 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 14.2 15.1 13.2 4.9 87.6 84.2 8.4 11.5 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 12.8 14.3 11.9 5.1 88.8 86.0 7.6 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 12.7 13.6 13.9 4.7 87.8 84.7 7.1 11.0 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 3.3 4.1 10.9 4.2 83.9 81.5 -0.6 1.2 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 14.3 15.0 14.4 5.2 89.3 85.5 8.8 12.1 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 14.5 14.9 12.1 4.4 82.9 80.6 8.8 12.0 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 14.5 15.3 14.0 5.2 89.4 85.0 8.4 12.0 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 13.3 14.5 12.4 4.8 89.7 85.6 8.1 11.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 14.0 15.3 13.2 4.7 88.2 84.5 8.6 12.1 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 14.8 16.5 14.2 5.0 87.7 83.7 9.4 12.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 13.9 16.8 14.2 6.1 95.1 90.4 5.4 11.0 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 14.5 16.0 13.2 5.0 89.4 85.4 9.6 12.5 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 12.3 13.8 13.6 4.7 90.0 85.2 6.7 10.9 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 13.8 14.7 11.5 4.4 85.0 81.5 8.9 11.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 13.0 15.0 14.5 5.0 89.3 85.5 7.7 11.4 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 8.3 8.7 8.4 3.3 82.3 79.2 5.0 6.5 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 13.9 15.1 14.9 5.1 88.2 85.0 8.6 12.1 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 13.4 14.5 13.8 4.7 89.2 84.9 7.1 11.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 13.8 15.6 14.9 5.3 89.6 85.6 9.0 12.3 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 14.6 16.1 14.2 5.1 87.6 84.1 8.6 12.3 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 13.6 14.6 13.5 5.1 88.2 85.8 7.4 11.3 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 13.7 14.6 11.4 4.8 90.2 87.3 10.2 11.6 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 13.2 14.2 13.7 4.8 87.4 84.7 8.1 11.8 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 14.9 16.7 13.1 5.8 93.2 89.4 6.6 11.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 8.4 9.7 10.7 4.2 85.0 81.9 4.5 6.7 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 12.7 13.9 14.4 4.9 88.6 85.4 7.5 11.2 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------