***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 3.1 3.4 3.9 1.8 76.9 74.2 0.9 2.3 3.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 2.8 3.5 3.7 1.9 81.5 76.7 0.9 1.6 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 4.9 5.5 4.0 1.8 79.1 75.6 2.9 3.8 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 -1.4 -0.9 1.1 1.8 74.8 73.5 -3.2 -2.5 -1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.6 72.6 70.8 0.4 1.4 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 1.0 1.0 -0.9 1.5 72.6 71.1 -0.5 0.5 0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 2.8 3.4 3.7 1.9 80.9 76.4 1.2 1.9 2.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 -4.3 -3.9 -0.9 1.4 70.5 69.1 -6.3 -5.4 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 2.8 3.1 1.6 1.4 72.8 69.6 0.9 2.3 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 2.6 3.1 0.0 1.4 72.5 70.1 1.3 1.9 2.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 2.4 2.7 0.9 1.5 73.6 70.6 1.2 1.7 2.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 1.3 1.5 0.2 1.6 74.2 71.8 -0.5 0.8 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 2.2 2.3 -0.1 1.5 71.6 70.7 0.8 1.7 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 3.2 3.8 1.8 1.9 80.0 76.2 1.7 2.2 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 3.0 3.5 2.3 2.0 79.9 77.2 1.4 1.9 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 3.1 3.3 0.4 1.6 73.3 71.7 1.3 2.4 3.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 3.1 3.7 3.6 1.9 82.1 77.3 1.1 1.9 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 0.7 1.0 -0.3 1.7 76.6 73.3 -0.8 0.2 0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 2.7 3.2 3.6 1.8 79.9 76.2 1.0 1.9 2.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 -2.0 -1.6 -2.2 1.5 75.0 71.4 -3.4 -2.7 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 2.6 2.8 3.1 1.7 75.4 72.6 1.2 2.0 2.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 2.5 3.1 3.5 1.9 80.3 77.2 0.6 1.4 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 2.3 2.8 3.3 1.7 78.1 74.9 0.7 1.3 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 2.3 2.7 1.6 1.8 78.3 75.2 0.9 1.8 2.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 2.6 2.7 2.8 1.9 76.6 73.5 1.1 2.3 2.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 2.2 2.1 -0.4 1.4 72.2 70.7 0.7 1.3 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 2.9 3.1 3.5 1.9 77.1 74.3 1.5 2.3 2.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.0 78.3 76.2 -0.2 0.9 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 0.0 0.6 -1.1 1.6 75.1 72.4 -2.1 -1.5 -0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 3.1 3.5 3.8 1.8 79.9 75.9 1.3 2.3 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------