***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.6 4.0 0.4 52.4 53.6 2.5 4.2 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.4 4.0 3.9 0.5 52.6 54.2 3.4 3.9 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.6 6.9 4.0 0.4 52.3 53.9 5.8 6.7 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 50.2 52.8 -1.2 0.7 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.1 1.3 0.2 47.0 51.5 1.1 3.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 2.8 2.1 -1.0 0.2 48.8 53.2 0.7 2.4 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.4 3.9 0.5 52.9 53.6 3.5 4.3 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -2.2 -3.1 -0.8 0.3 48.6 51.9 -4.2 -2.9 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.3 1.7 0.2 45.8 51.5 2.9 4.4 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.4 0.1 0.3 47.7 51.9 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.0 0.6 0.2 48.1 52.2 2.1 4.1 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 3.1 2.6 0.0 0.3 48.7 52.2 0.8 2.6 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 1.9 3.3 -0.5 0.2 47.3 51.4 1.7 3.4 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.0 4.4 1.5 0.3 46.8 51.4 3.5 4.4 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.7 2.3 0.6 53.9 55.6 2.7 4.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.2 0.0 0.2 47.5 51.6 2.9 4.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.5 3.7 0.4 51.5 52.7 3.5 4.5 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 2.1 1.4 -0.7 0.3 48.2 52.0 0.1 1.7 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.2 3.8 0.5 52.5 54.5 3.5 4.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -2.4 -1.5 -2.6 0.2 47.8 51.5 -2.3 -1.2 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.0 3.0 0.2 47.7 51.5 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.6 3.5 0.4 50.7 53.2 3.1 3.6 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.0 3.5 3.5 0.4 50.6 53.8 2.3 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.2 3.7 1.3 0.3 48.2 52.4 2.8 3.7 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.2 2.6 0.4 52.1 53.1 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 3.7 3.0 -0.6 0.3 48.0 52.8 1.7 3.1 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.2 5.5 3.4 0.4 52.3 53.5 2.9 5.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.6 1.3 0.3 50.3 53.1 1.0 2.6 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -0.9 0.9 -1.2 0.3 49.1 52.5 0.0 0.9 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.0 4.9 4.0 0.5 51.7 54.3 3.8 4.8 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------