***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 3.3 3.5 4.5 3.3 80.7 81.1 -0.6 1.2 2.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 2.3 3.8 4.5 3.6 86.4 84.3 -0.8 0.4 1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 4.6 5.3 4.8 3.5 85.7 82.9 1.2 2.9 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 -1.1 0.1 1.8 3.2 86.2 82.0 -5.0 -3.7 -1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 1.5 1.9 2.6 2.7 76.3 75.4 -1.4 -0.6 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 0.1 0.5 -0.6 2.2 73.8 72.3 -2.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 3.0 3.7 4.5 3.6 85.9 83.9 -0.5 0.8 2.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 -4.6 -4.3 -0.6 2.0 69.2 68.8 -8.3 -5.9 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 2.7 2.8 1.7 2.0 70.1 69.7 0.0 1.2 2.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 2.2 2.4 0.5 2.3 73.5 72.7 -0.6 0.6 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 1.8 2.2 1.6 2.3 73.5 73.0 -0.4 0.3 1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 0.7 0.9 1.2 2.6 77.0 75.6 -2.2 -0.4 0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 1.6 2.4 1.1 2.4 76.2 75.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 3.4 4.0 3.1 3.7 89.2 85.4 0.0 1.2 2.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 2.9 3.7 2.6 3.0 83.2 80.3 -0.7 1.0 2.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 2.8 3.6 1.6 2.8 80.5 78.3 -0.3 0.6 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 3.1 4.2 4.5 3.9 90.6 86.8 -0.6 1.3 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 0.6 1.2 0.9 3.1 83.9 81.0 -2.4 -1.4 -0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 2.7 3.5 4.2 3.3 84.0 82.7 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 -1.6 -1.1 -0.7 2.7 77.6 77.3 -7.0 -4.1 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 2.7 3.3 3.8 2.9 81.8 79.1 0.0 0.5 1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 2.7 3.3 4.5 3.7 88.8 86.2 -0.9 0.9 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 2.4 2.8 3.7 3.0 80.6 79.5 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 2.7 3.4 2.8 3.2 85.6 82.4 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 2.1 2.7 4.0 3.4 82.3 80.7 0.0 0.7 1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 1.4 2.0 0.6 2.4 76.3 74.7 -1.3 -0.1 1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 2.8 3.5 4.5 3.6 82.0 81.7 -0.5 0.9 2.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 1.6 2.8 2.7 3.7 92.1 86.4 -1.9 -0.9 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 2.8 79.2 77.5 -3.4 -1.6 -1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 3.0 3.6 4.5 3.4 83.4 82.1 -0.4 0.9 2.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------