***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.3 103.4 61.7 51.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.2 9.7 12.7 96.7 60.8 50.2 1.7 4.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.8 7.9 14.0 109.0 64.3 54.0 2.6 4.8 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.4 13.9 16.5 107.3 63.4 53.5 6.6 9.5 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.3 10.5 16.5 112.1 65.2 54.6 2.4 5.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.4 14.4 18.6 104.7 61.9 50.8 6.5 8.3 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.7 7.5 12.3 92.1 58.4 47.9 0.7 5.7 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.9 26.2 17.6 113.0 65.2 53.3 6.8 14.5 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.7 10.1 16.2 115.3 68.1 55.5 1.5 4.6 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.3 12.9 17.9 117.5 69.1 55.6 3.2 6.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.3 12.7 16.1 114.3 66.5 53.8 3.1 4.7 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.6 14.9 15.8 111.2 65.3 52.5 2.3 8.6 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.9 18.0 17.3 107.8 62.8 52.1 5.6 11.5 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.4 21.1 17.6 110.5 66.3 53.9 4.8 11.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 10.7 13.2 15.2 102.3 59.8 52.7 1.9 6.4 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.4 14.9 16.9 112.5 67.1 53.5 2.0 6.7 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.5 6.2 11.7 88.4 54.3 48.3 2.2 5.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.4 11.1 19.8 120.4 70.2 57.5 3.4 8.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.3 11.0 13.2 102.3 64.0 52.2 1.7 6.8 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.8 22.2 115.0 64.5 56.1 5.5 9.7 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.9 14.8 112.1 65.4 54.9 2.8 5.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.2 12.0 90.2 59.1 49.1 3.4 7.6 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.3 12.4 14.3 109.2 66.2 53.9 3.0 10.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 14.0 17.5 117.0 69.8 56.8 3.6 8.4 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.9 16.0 106.2 61.1 52.5 3.6 6.6 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.5 15.9 99.8 58.5 50.1 2.1 5.6 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.3 9.2 14.7 102.1 60.0 50.2 2.4 4.8 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.4 11.9 16.4 107.9 63.1 54.0 0.9 5.3 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 19.6 20.7 118.5 68.1 57.2 8.3 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.4 7.7 13.0 99.6 62.2 50.7 1.5 4.5 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------