***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 14.2 121.3 66.2 59.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.2 11.0 15.4 128.2 71.2 62.2 0.7 3.3 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.4 14.5 119.6 67.4 59.3 2.8 5.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.8 12.7 15.7 117.5 68.1 58.5 4.3 6.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.2 15.6 15.5 119.6 67.9 58.9 4.4 7.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.5 18.3 115.9 69.4 58.2 2.2 6.6 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.7 9.9 15.3 131.5 72.5 62.5 1.2 3.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 24.3 29.5 17.0 121.8 71.3 61.0 6.9 11.4 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.3 11.7 15.6 123.2 66.6 59.7 2.7 5.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 17.1 19.2 16.7 122.8 70.4 60.2 3.6 9.7 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.7 18.4 14.5 118.2 70.9 58.6 3.2 10.4 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 16.5 15.1 15.0 120.2 71.2 60.5 2.9 5.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 16.9 12.8 16.8 119.6 69.5 60.1 4.8 7.2 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.7 18.0 121.8 63.2 60.6 5.2 9.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.6 11.8 15.2 117.6 67.7 58.2 2.6 5.1 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 13.1 14.3 15.4 117.8 69.7 58.8 2.7 5.6 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 10.7 11.5 15.3 128.9 69.3 61.1 2.4 6.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 13.1 15.2 19.0 126.1 73.1 61.8 4.2 6.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.7 11.3 15.3 124.9 69.7 61.6 0.6 5.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 18.0 17.0 23.2 124.6 72.2 62.2 3.4 5.3 9.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.1 14.6 120.8 67.9 59.0 3.5 6.3 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.9 11.6 15.7 122.5 66.6 60.7 1.7 6.6 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 8.3 9.7 15.7 123.4 67.4 61.5 2.3 3.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.6 13.9 17.2 123.6 68.0 60.7 4.5 9.0 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.6 10.0 16.2 120.8 68.4 59.8 1.8 5.3 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 9.8 11.6 16.9 120.4 72.0 61.1 2.6 5.4 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.6 15.7 122.9 67.9 60.3 0.8 5.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.3 9.9 15.4 117.2 68.0 58.0 0.9 4.2 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 25.6 26.2 20.7 125.7 72.1 62.3 4.4 11.2 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.1 9.2 15.0 126.4 70.0 62.0 1.4 3.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------