***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.4 71.1 44.9 41.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.9 2.5 8.8 59.9 41.3 39.1 1.2 3.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.9 6.0 11.3 75.3 47.1 43.6 3.4 6.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.7 8.3 13.4 83.8 59.0 48.0 4.1 6.4 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.6 13.9 85.7 56.5 47.0 4.3 5.6 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.1 4.0 13.6 91.8 53.7 50.1 1.8 3.5 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.3 1.8 8.1 56.5 39.7 37.9 1.3 2.4 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.0 15.6 93.6 57.4 50.6 7.8 13.1 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.8 14.1 88.4 55.1 47.8 0.8 4.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.8 15.5 92.8 56.9 50.0 2.1 7.0 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.6 7.3 14.3 92.3 58.2 49.3 1.4 3.2 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.4 13.8 90.3 57.0 49.0 2.8 3.8 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.3 8.6 13.5 86.0 53.8 47.8 3.5 7.9 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.2 8.6 14.6 82.6 51.3 46.0 3.7 8.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 5.9 4.9 13.4 91.3 59.6 53.3 1.2 4.3 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.2 8.4 13.3 85.8 55.8 47.2 3.3 5.6 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.0 1.2 7.8 52.1 39.2 36.8 0.9 2.0 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.8 6.2 15.8 87.2 52.1 47.8 1.6 6.1 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.8 3.4 9.7 64.9 44.7 40.6 1.8 4.0 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 4.7 4.3 18.7 88.3 53.9 49.3 2.3 3.5 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 1.2 3.7 12.9 84.7 53.0 46.7 1.9 2.8 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.6 1.9 9.1 58.1 41.8 39.0 1.4 2.6 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.1 11.3 72.3 49.1 42.8 1.4 5.2 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.0 8.2 14.2 83.6 51.0 46.2 2.0 8.2 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.3 11.6 70.6 47.0 40.7 2.2 5.7 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 5.0 4.0 13.9 87.6 53.4 48.4 0.8 3.3 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.1 4.4 10.3 65.7 43.9 38.5 1.7 4.7 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.4 13.3 88.9 59.7 50.6 2.0 3.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.1 10.4 16.2 84.4 52.0 47.2 4.6 10.3 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.4 2.9 9.3 63.8 42.2 40.1 1.3 4.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------