***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.3 -0.8 28.6 40.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 11.2 10.7 10.1 -0.9 31.5 39.5 10.7 12.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 11.2 11.4 10.5 -0.8 30.9 40.3 11.4 12.5 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 2.8 3.3 8.3 -1.2 26.9 37.3 3.6 4.7 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 11.3 11.0 9.0 -1.0 28.1 39.2 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 10.4 10.9 7.7 -0.6 37.6 44.0 10.4 11.3 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 10.7 10.4 10.0 -0.9 31.0 39.8 10.4 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 0.0 0.3 8.0 -0.7 32.2 42.3 0.3 1.5 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 11.1 11.4 9.8 -0.8 29.7 41.0 11.6 12.5 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 11.2 11.3 8.8 -0.7 32.5 42.5 11.3 12.5 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 11.2 11.1 9.0 -0.8 27.9 41.5 11.5 12.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 10.5 10.8 8.7 -0.8 29.2 41.1 11.0 11.9 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 11.4 11.8 8.4 -0.7 33.6 42.7 11.8 12.7 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 11.7 11.5 9.8 -0.7 33.7 42.4 11.5 13.0 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 9.6 11.3 8.7 -1.2 26.3 37.3 11.5 11.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 11.7 11.9 8.7 -0.7 29.3 42.2 11.9 13.1 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 10.4 10.0 9.8 -0.9 34.3 39.8 10.0 11.5 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 10.9 11.2 8.3 -0.5 38.4 44.7 11.0 12.1 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 11.0 10.8 10.3 -0.9 32.3 39.8 10.9 12.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 7.0 6.1 -0.4 45.5 46.6 6.3 7.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 11.2 11.4 10.3 -0.8 29.9 40.3 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 11.0 11.1 10.0 -0.9 35.1 39.7 11.1 11.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 11.5 11.4 10.4 -0.8 33.4 40.4 11.4 13.0 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 11.5 11.7 9.7 -0.7 36.2 42.8 11.3 12.6 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 10.8 10.8 8.9 -0.9 29.6 39.9 11.3 12.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 11.1 11.3 7.9 -0.8 31.7 40.4 11.4 12.3 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 10.8 11.0 9.7 -0.8 30.8 40.6 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 9.7 11.4 8.7 -1.1 26.0 38.2 11.8 12.2 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.1 7.2 7.4 -0.4 43.9 46.3 6.2 7.4 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 10.9 10.7 10.3 -0.9 30.4 39.6 10.7 12.2 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------