***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 12.4 -0.3 47.5 47.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 13.8 15.0 12.0 -0.4 46.6 47.2 13.9 15.5 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 14.2 15.9 12.4 -0.3 50.1 47.0 14.1 15.9 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.3 10.8 -0.4 47.6 46.1 5.2 7.3 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.6 11.1 -0.3 48.6 46.9 14.4 15.7 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 12.5 14.8 9.4 -0.3 50.1 47.7 13.2 14.8 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.0 11.9 -0.3 46.2 47.4 13.8 15.3 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 1.6 3.5 9.7 -0.2 44.2 47.6 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.6 11.6 -0.3 48.9 46.9 13.9 15.6 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 13.6 15.5 10.4 -0.3 45.6 47.1 14.3 15.6 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 13.4 15.6 10.8 -0.3 45.8 47.4 14.1 15.8 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 12.4 14.5 10.6 -0.2 44.7 47.8 13.8 14.9 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 13.5 15.4 10.1 -0.2 46.0 48.1 14.9 16.0 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 14.1 15.6 11.1 -0.4 45.4 46.3 14.6 16.2 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.0 14.4 11.0 -0.5 45.1 45.6 13.8 14.9 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 13.3 15.5 10.5 -0.3 45.9 47.4 15.1 15.6 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 12.8 14.2 11.6 -0.4 45.0 47.1 13.3 14.3 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 13.2 15.1 9.7 -0.3 46.7 47.3 13.7 15.3 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.9 12.1 -0.4 47.1 47.1 14.3 15.1 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.4 9.8 7.4 -0.2 46.3 48.2 9.0 10.0 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.6 12.1 -0.3 49.5 46.9 14.2 15.6 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 13.6 14.5 11.8 -0.4 45.2 46.8 13.9 15.0 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 14.2 15.5 12.2 -0.4 47.6 46.8 14.5 15.8 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 13.7 15.8 11.2 -0.4 49.0 46.5 14.6 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.2 11.0 -0.3 48.5 47.3 14.0 15.4 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 13.2 15.6 9.9 -0.1 47.6 48.5 13.9 15.7 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.6 11.6 -0.3 47.5 47.8 14.5 15.9 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 13.2 14.3 11.0 -0.5 46.3 45.8 13.1 15.1 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.6 9.9 8.7 -0.3 47.2 47.7 9.0 10.2 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 13.8 15.2 12.2 -0.3 48.3 47.1 13.9 15.4 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------