***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.5 -1.2 36.0 41.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 10.3 10.3 10.1 -1.4 32.8 39.1 10.3 11.6 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.8 10.5 10.6 -1.2 34.1 41.0 10.5 12.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 1.4 1.6 9.0 -1.0 34.0 44.7 1.5 5.4 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 10.5 10.0 9.4 -1.0 34.2 44.0 9.9 13.0 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 8.7 11.4 8.1 -0.4 44.5 48.3 7.8 12.0 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 10.1 10.2 10.0 -1.4 33.2 38.9 10.2 11.6 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -1.6 -0.7 8.1 -0.9 37.2 43.9 -1.4 0.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 10.3 10.0 9.9 -1.0 35.7 43.0 9.8 12.5 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 9.7 9.8 8.9 -1.0 36.6 43.6 9.1 12.4 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 10.0 9.8 9.2 -0.9 36.1 44.7 9.4 12.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 8.9 8.6 9.0 -0.9 37.0 44.3 8.3 12.5 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 10.0 10.5 8.6 -0.6 39.1 46.1 9.0 12.6 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 10.8 11.3 9.6 -1.2 35.3 41.0 11.0 12.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.7 9.2 -1.0 35.9 45.2 10.5 13.7 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 10.3 10.2 9.0 -0.7 38.4 45.8 9.7 13.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 9.8 9.6 9.8 -1.5 33.2 38.2 9.6 10.7 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 9.5 9.6 8.2 -1.0 36.0 43.2 9.1 12.0 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.4 10.5 10.3 -1.4 33.5 39.6 10.5 11.8 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 5.3 6.0 -0.9 38.7 44.5 4.0 7.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 10.6 10.6 10.3 -1.1 35.1 42.5 10.4 12.9 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 10.4 10.5 10.0 -1.5 33.6 38.8 10.5 11.6 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 10.6 10.9 10.4 -1.4 34.8 40.1 10.9 12.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 10.3 11.0 9.6 -1.2 34.8 41.9 10.8 12.5 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 10.4 10.2 9.1 -1.1 34.2 42.8 10.1 12.6 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 9.1 9.8 8.4 -0.5 39.0 46.3 8.5 11.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 10.4 10.9 9.7 -1.1 34.8 41.5 10.5 12.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 9.7 10.6 9.3 -0.9 35.5 45.5 9.9 13.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 4.6 5.0 7.2 -0.9 37.4 43.8 4.1 7.4 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 10.0 10.5 10.3 -1.4 34.0 39.6 10.5 11.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------