***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.4 -2.3 23.1 34.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 8.6 8.2 8.1 -2.4 21.3 34.5 10.3 10.8 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 9.1 8.5 8.5 -2.4 21.9 34.8 10.6 12.4 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 0.3 0.3 6.4 -2.6 25.6 34.3 1.9 4.4 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 9.0 9.4 6.9 -2.6 25.8 34.7 10.2 12.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 8.1 8.1 5.6 -2.3 27.8 36.2 8.7 10.7 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 8.2 7.8 8.1 -2.4 21.3 34.7 9.4 10.6 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 -1.1 -1.5 6.0 -2.3 27.8 36.0 -0.9 1.4 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 9.1 9.1 7.5 -2.5 26.1 34.9 10.2 12.5 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 8.7 9.3 6.6 -2.3 27.5 35.8 9.9 12.6 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 8.7 9.3 6.8 -2.4 28.0 35.3 9.8 12.8 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 8.6 9.0 6.7 -2.4 27.6 35.3 9.2 11.9 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 9.9 9.5 6.2 -2.3 27.3 35.6 10.4 12.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 9.1 9.3 7.6 -2.4 23.9 34.6 10.8 12.8 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 7.6 7.8 6.5 -2.7 25.2 34.4 9.4 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 9.7 9.8 6.5 -2.4 28.8 35.4 10.3 12.9 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 8.0 7.5 7.9 -2.4 22.5 34.9 9.2 10.4 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 9.2 9.0 6.2 -2.2 27.6 36.5 9.4 12.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 8.4 7.7 8.3 -2.4 21.0 34.4 10.3 11.7 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 4.2 4.5 4.1 -1.9 28.8 37.8 5.1 6.9 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 9.3 9.0 8.0 -2.5 23.2 34.7 10.7 12.5 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 8.8 8.1 8.1 -2.4 22.9 34.7 10.1 11.8 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 9.1 8.3 8.4 -2.5 21.3 34.4 10.6 12.3 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 9.5 9.2 7.5 -2.4 24.7 35.2 10.6 12.7 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 8.2 7.7 6.9 -2.4 25.0 35.0 9.7 11.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 9.7 9.3 6.0 -2.3 26.0 34.7 9.8 12.1 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 7.9 8.9 7.6 -2.3 25.0 35.1 10.1 10.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 8.0 8.3 6.6 -2.7 26.4 34.6 9.4 13.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 4.2 4.0 5.3 -2.1 28.0 37.1 4.2 7.5 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 8.3 8.0 8.3 -2.4 21.5 34.5 10.0 10.9 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------