***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 0.0 10.2 0.5 48.9 52.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 11.5 11.1 10.2 0.7 48.9 53.8 7.6 11.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 12.3 12.1 10.7 0.6 50.6 53.1 8.5 12.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 3.9 1.8 6.8 -0.7 41.2 43.0 0.8 3.5 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 12.0 11.4 8.7 0.0 45.7 48.0 8.4 11.5 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 11.0 10.7 7.6 0.5 52.3 53.4 7.6 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 11.3 11.4 10.0 0.7 51.4 54.7 7.1 11.0 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 1.5 1.5 8.0 0.6 55.9 54.5 -0.6 1.2 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 12.4 12.1 10.3 0.6 49.3 52.5 8.8 12.1 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 12.4 12.3 9.2 0.8 54.9 55.0 8.8 12.0 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 12.4 12.0 9.2 0.4 49.7 51.4 8.4 12.0 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 11.6 11.3 8.5 0.3 50.9 51.2 8.1 11.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 12.4 12.5 8.7 0.4 54.0 52.9 8.6 12.1 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.4 10.9 1.4 58.8 59.0 9.4 12.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 11.5 7.6 8.2 -0.7 41.0 42.7 5.4 11.0 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 12.8 12.5 8.9 0.5 51.6 51.8 9.6 12.5 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 11.2 11.0 9.8 0.8 50.3 54.9 6.7 10.9 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 11.6 12.7 9.1 1.4 62.8 60.8 8.9 11.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 11.7 11.3 10.4 0.7 49.4 53.9 7.7 11.4 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 7.6 7.1 6.9 1.5 66.4 63.6 5.0 6.5 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 12.4 12.1 10.5 0.5 49.0 51.4 8.6 12.1 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 11.9 11.5 10.2 0.8 49.5 54.4 7.1 11.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 12.6 12.6 10.8 0.9 52.2 55.0 9.0 12.3 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 12.7 13.0 10.6 1.2 58.9 58.4 8.6 12.3 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 11.6 11.3 8.7 0.2 50.0 50.2 7.4 11.3 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 11.9 11.3 7.1 -0.2 44.9 47.8 10.2 11.6 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 12.0 12.1 9.6 0.6 51.4 53.1 8.1 11.8 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 11.7 8.1 7.9 -0.5 41.3 43.8 6.6 11.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 7.7 7.3 8.5 1.7 65.2 63.5 4.5 6.7 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 11.4 11.0 10.3 0.6 49.3 53.4 7.5 11.2 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------