***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 1.8 -0.5 39.6 45.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 0.4 0.9 1.5 -0.5 36.8 44.1 0.9 1.6 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.9 3.0 1.6 -0.4 38.0 45.2 2.9 3.8 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -3.3 -3.2 -0.7 -0.8 31.0 40.7 -3.2 -2.5 -1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 -0.1 0.5 -0.2 -0.5 34.9 43.9 0.4 1.4 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -0.8 0.1 -1.6 0.0 41.0 51.0 -0.5 0.5 0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 0.7 1.4 1.5 -0.5 37.2 44.4 1.2 1.9 2.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -6.3 -6.0 -1.2 -0.1 43.3 50.2 -6.3 -5.4 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 1.1 1.6 0.5 -0.3 38.0 46.8 0.9 2.3 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 1.1 1.4 -0.6 -0.2 41.3 49.2 1.3 1.9 2.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 0.9 1.2 -0.3 -0.3 37.9 47.4 1.2 1.7 2.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 -0.5 0.3 -0.5 -0.2 41.6 48.7 -0.5 0.8 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 0.4 1.3 -0.8 -0.2 41.0 49.0 0.8 1.7 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 1.5 2.0 0.5 -0.4 40.4 45.6 1.7 2.2 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.1 1.0 0.0 -0.8 27.4 40.3 1.4 1.9 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.2 1.6 -0.6 -0.3 37.3 47.4 1.3 2.4 3.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 0.9 1.4 1.3 -0.6 37.7 43.3 1.1 1.9 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 0.4 0.0 -1.1 0.0 43.7 50.5 -0.8 0.2 0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 0.8 1.1 1.5 -0.5 36.6 44.1 1.0 1.9 2.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -2.4 -2.8 -2.7 0.2 47.9 53.2 -3.4 -2.7 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 0.4 1.5 1.3 -0.4 37.8 45.8 1.2 2.0 2.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 0.6 0.8 1.3 -0.6 35.7 42.9 0.6 1.4 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 0.4 1.0 1.4 -0.5 37.3 44.4 0.7 1.3 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 2.0 1.3 0.3 -0.3 40.3 47.2 0.9 1.8 2.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 0.7 1.4 0.5 -0.5 38.2 45.0 1.1 2.3 2.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 0.0 0.9 -0.8 -0.2 39.3 49.0 0.7 1.3 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 0.7 1.7 1.2 -0.5 39.5 45.4 1.5 2.3 2.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 29.6 40.9 -0.2 0.9 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -1.0 -1.6 -1.7 0.1 46.2 52.5 -2.1 -1.5 -0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 0.9 1.4 1.6 -0.5 36.4 44.6 1.3 2.3 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------