***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 3.4 -0.3 44.6 47.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.2 3.8 3.0 -0.3 42.9 46.2 3.4 3.9 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.5 3.2 -0.2 46.3 47.9 5.8 6.7 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -1.0 0.3 1.4 -0.2 44.7 47.7 -1.2 0.7 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.1 1.6 0.0 46.8 48.9 1.1 3.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 0.9 2.3 -0.2 0.2 49.6 51.3 0.7 2.4 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.0 3.0 -0.3 42.4 46.2 3.5 4.3 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -4.8 -3.0 0.2 0.2 49.1 50.8 -4.2 -2.9 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.5 4.4 2.1 0.0 47.6 48.9 2.9 4.4 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.7 4.5 0.8 0.1 48.2 50.0 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.1 1.3 0.2 49.0 50.6 2.1 4.1 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.6 1.0 0.2 49.8 51.3 0.8 2.6 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.4 0.5 0.2 50.6 51.3 1.7 3.4 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.4 1.9 -0.1 46.2 48.6 3.5 4.4 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.3 2.9 1.8 -0.4 42.1 45.8 2.7 4.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.0 4.4 0.9 0.1 49.9 51.0 2.9 4.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.9 4.2 2.8 -0.4 41.0 45.0 3.5 4.5 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 0.3 1.4 0.2 0.1 47.2 50.3 0.1 1.7 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.5 3.8 3.1 -0.2 43.0 46.7 3.5 4.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -2.5 -1.4 -1.5 0.2 48.7 51.3 -2.3 -1.2 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.8 2.8 -0.1 46.3 48.4 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.9 3.5 2.8 -0.3 41.6 45.3 3.1 3.6 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.1 3.2 2.9 -0.2 42.7 47.7 2.3 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.6 1.8 0.0 47.1 49.2 2.8 3.7 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.0 2.0 -0.3 44.8 47.2 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.0 0.7 0.3 47.9 52.4 1.7 3.1 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.8 4.5 2.7 -0.3 44.1 46.7 2.9 5.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.4 1.8 1.6 -0.2 43.5 48.0 1.0 2.6 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 1.6 0.9 -0.4 0.2 47.4 51.0 0.0 0.9 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.0 4.5 3.2 -0.3 44.4 46.9 3.8 4.8 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------