***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 1.6 0.4 51.5 52.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.3 49.7 50.2 -0.8 0.4 1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 3.2 3.1 1.4 0.4 52.0 51.7 1.2 2.9 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -3.0 -5.0 -1.9 -0.8 33.7 37.0 -5.0 -3.7 -1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 0.0 -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 39.9 44.3 -1.4 -0.6 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 -0.7 -1.0 -1.9 0.8 49.3 54.7 -2.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 50.3 50.8 -0.5 0.8 2.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -5.5 -5.9 -1.3 0.8 51.6 55.8 -8.3 -5.9 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.6 50.2 53.8 0.0 1.2 2.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 1.0 0.7 -0.6 0.8 52.0 55.4 -0.6 0.6 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 0.7 0.1 -0.5 0.4 46.7 50.9 -0.4 0.3 1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 -0.1 -0.7 -0.9 0.3 47.9 50.9 -2.2 -0.4 0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 0.2 -0.4 -1.1 0.2 47.8 49.0 -0.9 -0.3 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.5 50.6 52.7 0.0 1.2 2.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 1.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 37.4 39.4 -0.7 1.0 2.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 1.1 0.3 -1.0 0.1 43.9 46.4 -0.3 0.6 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.2 49.1 49.9 -0.6 1.3 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 -1.0 -0.7 -1.0 1.1 56.2 57.6 -2.4 -1.4 -0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 50.7 50.8 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -3.5 -2.7 -2.4 1.6 60.2 62.1 -7.0 -4.1 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 1.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 48.2 51.3 0.0 0.5 1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 1.1 0.2 1.0 0.2 46.7 49.3 -0.9 0.9 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 0.7 0.4 1.1 0.3 52.4 52.4 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.7 53.0 54.6 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 49.6 49.8 0.0 0.7 1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 0.3 -0.2 -1.6 -0.1 45.4 46.1 -1.3 -0.1 1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.3 49.9 51.5 -0.5 0.9 2.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -1.7 -1.3 -0.8 34.4 36.9 -1.9 -0.9 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 -0.8 -1.0 -1.3 1.5 64.1 63.2 -3.4 -1.6 -1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 1.3 0.9 1.4 0.3 49.9 50.8 -0.4 0.9 2.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------