***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 19.4 26.7 54.6 98.3 54.2 49.8 20.9 25.9 41.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 18.9 28.1 48.8 96.8 52.6 47.4 20.5 27.3 31.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 24.9 38.8 53.8 96.7 52.2 48.1 25.6 38.0 48.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 44.3 40.2 62.0 101.2 52.3 51.9 30.3 40.1 48.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 40.6 36.7 60.8 101.4 54.0 52.9 32.0 36.3 45.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 41.4 41.0 62.3 104.2 57.7 53.6 24.9 39.0 43.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 17.2 29.5 48.2 97.9 53.4 48.2 22.5 28.1 33.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 74.3 74.4 65.5 102.0 54.8 53.1 55.9 69.1 79.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 40.0 36.1 60.6 99.7 50.9 51.4 24.9 35.6 46.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 42.6 37.5 64.9 100.0 51.8 51.5 30.0 36.5 60.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 42.5 40.9 58.7 100.5 53.3 52.0 26.0 37.8 53.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 39.9 36.5 58.8 102.1 55.4 52.8 30.6 34.1 40.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 29.0 47.8 64.8 104.6 57.4 54.4 31.7 39.3 48.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 35.9 56.9 69.8 98.6 53.1 48.2 40.1 54.5 64.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 44.9 47.8 56.6 100.4 54.6 50.5 20.5 39.3 57.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 37.7 36.4 61.3 104.4 55.4 54.5 28.6 33.2 38.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 17.3 27.1 48.6 99.1 55.9 48.8 17.1 25.5 32.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 42.1 38.2 70.1 101.9 54.5 52.5 33.0 37.2 45.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 24.1 36.0 50.7 97.0 52.0 47.2 26.5 34.4 40.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 39.5 41.5 86.0 106.9 62.1 56.6 29.8 34.5 46.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 41.5 38.6 58.4 100.4 52.7 51.8 25.2 37.7 43.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 19.2 27.9 53.5 101.8 56.8 50.2 22.9 26.5 34.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 25.8 35.7 54.3 96.8 51.9 46.7 24.8 34.7 38.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 32.4 49.5 64.0 98.1 52.9 49.2 40.3 47.8 66.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 37.6 30.9 63.1 101.7 54.0 52.2 22.0 30.4 36.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 22.8 37.5 64.1 104.8 58.0 54.8 23.1 34.7 40.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 21.5 32.3 58.1 99.7 54.2 50.7 24.8 29.9 37.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 37.3 35.5 57.8 99.9 52.5 50.7 21.5 32.3 43.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 67.1 64.9 76.7 105.7 59.8 55.2 47.1 60.3 70.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 18.8 30.0 49.6 96.2 52.9 47.3 21.9 28.6 38.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------