***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.0 11.9 84.1 51.1 43.9 2.7 6.8 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.6 10.9 86.5 54.6 45.6 2.1 4.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.8 5.5 12.0 83.5 53.6 44.2 3.3 5.4 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.3 9.7 13.0 86.7 56.9 43.1 4.5 7.0 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.6 8.0 12.6 83.3 52.2 42.7 2.9 7.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.8 14.4 98.3 58.1 47.7 6.7 9.4 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.3 5.2 10.6 87.1 54.7 45.7 1.6 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.9 17.7 14.6 89.8 57.2 46.3 7.5 16.1 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.2 12.9 80.3 51.9 42.2 1.2 7.1 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.4 11.1 14.6 85.5 54.9 44.1 3.5 8.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.8 12.5 12.8 88.8 58.6 45.1 3.8 8.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.8 12.6 12.8 90.2 58.5 46.5 3.9 9.4 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.4 12.0 14.1 93.9 56.9 47.1 6.6 9.9 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.1 15.4 17.6 92.2 58.5 46.1 7.3 11.0 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.7 11.0 13.0 93.9 61.9 44.5 1.2 4.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.1 10.3 13.2 92.8 60.0 46.3 2.0 9.5 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.4 10.2 87.6 54.9 46.4 2.1 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.3 9.4 16.0 86.4 56.3 44.1 6.6 8.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.0 11.7 87.8 55.3 45.5 1.9 6.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.0 10.0 17.8 87.1 56.0 45.8 6.2 8.2 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.4 7.3 12.0 80.2 51.4 42.2 3.0 7.1 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.5 11.1 86.6 56.6 46.9 3.3 5.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.1 10.0 13.3 90.9 57.2 45.5 3.3 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.0 10.8 15.0 85.8 55.6 44.1 5.0 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.4 7.5 12.8 83.5 49.0 43.2 3.7 7.6 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.1 7.5 12.9 87.6 54.5 44.2 3.3 5.8 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.5 5.5 12.3 83.8 50.9 43.8 2.3 5.3 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 1.5 9.0 12.7 89.2 59.9 43.8 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.8 13.6 17.2 89.6 57.0 45.7 9.5 12.2 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.3 5.0 11.4 85.8 53.0 44.9 1.6 4.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------