***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 1.2 2.7 8.4 61.3 38.2 32.1 2.1 3.7 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 1.0 1.7 7.7 64.6 40.8 34.4 1.4 3.2 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 2.3 3.5 8.1 59.9 39.1 32.3 2.4 5.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 4.3 8.2 11.0 75.4 49.1 38.7 4.7 8.3 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 4.4 7.4 9.8 66.5 41.3 36.4 4.4 9.9 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 2.1 6.4 11.5 75.2 47.2 38.1 2.4 6.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 1.4 3.1 7.6 64.5 40.7 34.6 2.3 4.4 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.5 12.8 10.4 66.3 42.0 36.4 9.3 16.8 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.0 4.8 9.4 60.8 37.3 33.1 4.6 7.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 7.0 8.2 10.1 62.3 38.1 34.2 6.5 14.2 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.5 9.7 9.6 67.4 42.8 37.3 3.8 12.4 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.6 5.6 9.6 68.6 44.0 37.1 5.0 7.5 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.3 7.2 10.6 69.0 41.8 35.4 4.0 8.1 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 4.7 4.8 10.3 59.8 33.6 32.4 4.8 10.5 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 1.1 4.6 11.0 78.0 54.0 39.5 0.8 3.3 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.3 6.3 10.3 72.2 44.6 37.9 4.4 6.4 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.0 3.2 7.8 66.3 43.4 36.5 2.0 5.9 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 4.1 6.0 10.4 61.2 36.2 33.3 4.7 8.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 1.6 1.5 8.0 65.2 40.8 34.5 1.1 4.2 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 3.6 5.4 12.7 65.3 41.3 34.8 4.8 7.6 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 3.0 5.6 8.8 61.0 37.0 33.2 4.2 8.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 1.1 2.2 8.9 72.6 46.3 38.0 1.3 3.2 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 1.2 2.3 8.3 62.4 37.6 33.8 2.0 2.9 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 5.2 5.6 9.3 58.5 35.5 32.2 5.3 11.0 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 2.1 2.4 9.7 64.3 38.4 34.1 1.8 6.7 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.4 3.9 10.2 67.0 40.6 34.8 2.5 6.7 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 1.9 3.0 9.0 63.4 38.5 32.8 2.1 5.4 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 1.9 6.2 11.1 78.8 52.7 39.8 1.0 5.8 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 7.5 9.1 11.1 63.0 37.3 33.8 7.7 16.2 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 1.0 2.6 7.7 62.6 40.0 33.5 1.9 3.3 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------