***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 13.0 17.8 21.7 155.4 80.3 66.4 4.6 6.7 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 13.5 13.7 18.9 143.3 75.6 65.6 3.9 7.6 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 16.8 21.4 19.9 144.0 75.9 63.6 1.7 9.7 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 15.0 18.4 22.3 133.8 70.5 64.6 5.0 7.4 17.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 15.9 19.6 22.5 147.9 78.5 67.9 5.2 9.5 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 10.2 12.1 20.7 140.2 70.7 66.2 2.7 5.2 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 12.6 14.5 19.4 148.8 76.8 66.4 2.0 7.1 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 25.4 29.5 24.2 145.5 76.4 69.7 11.1 14.6 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 12.9 16.6 21.2 149.1 80.6 67.8 2.2 7.0 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 13.6 14.3 22.6 141.3 77.4 67.5 3.1 12.4 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 12.0 13.9 20.7 138.0 73.5 66.1 1.8 5.8 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 10.2 12.5 21.7 146.0 75.8 69.5 2.8 5.4 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 12.2 14.4 23.4 149.5 75.8 69.8 3.6 7.8 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 22.8 27.6 23.7 137.5 75.8 65.4 3.2 14.5 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 15.1 19.6 19.0 133.5 72.0 64.3 2.9 7.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 12.5 13.9 22.0 143.0 74.1 67.3 4.6 6.8 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 9.7 11.1 20.0 147.7 76.3 67.8 2.1 7.1 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 14.7 18.3 24.9 148.4 79.2 69.6 3.6 9.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 14.8 18.1 19.0 140.6 73.9 64.8 3.0 8.6 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 10.6 14.9 33.9 167.3 83.1 75.3 3.1 8.1 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 16.0 23.7 21.6 150.8 79.0 66.4 2.2 4.2 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 11.2 13.1 21.7 151.1 77.7 69.1 5.8 8.0 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 9.8 15.9 19.2 136.3 71.6 63.7 3.0 7.8 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 18.2 22.3 22.1 141.3 77.2 65.8 4.8 11.4 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 12.7 21.8 25.3 160.2 81.8 68.2 0.9 4.3 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 12.1 16.1 26.3 170.3 83.6 75.6 2.2 4.4 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 12.4 18.1 23.3 158.9 81.3 67.7 1.9 5.3 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 13.8 12.2 19.3 127.4 69.6 63.7 2.0 4.1 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 18.9 22.7 28.6 157.9 81.1 72.8 6.2 14.4 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 13.9 18.1 19.1 144.1 76.9 64.8 3.6 7.2 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------