***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 12.2 13.3 12.6 1.9 74.6 68.7 11.0 12.0 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 12.1 13.9 12.4 1.8 74.3 68.4 10.6 11.7 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 12.4 13.8 12.8 1.7 70.3 66.5 10.8 12.0 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 4.8 5.9 10.1 1.9 70.9 68.5 2.9 4.4 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 12.8 13.9 11.1 1.6 67.6 66.0 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 11.6 13.3 9.3 1.6 68.8 66.2 10.0 11.2 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 11.8 13.9 12.4 1.8 75.5 69.2 10.1 11.5 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 1.6 2.2 9.4 1.4 65.3 63.6 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 12.7 13.8 11.7 1.6 66.7 65.2 11.0 12.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 12.6 13.6 10.3 1.4 65.2 63.5 10.7 12.2 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 12.6 13.7 11.2 1.5 66.3 65.1 11.1 12.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 12.0 12.5 10.4 1.5 66.1 64.8 10.3 11.6 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 13.0 13.8 10.3 1.5 66.7 65.4 11.4 12.6 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 12.8 13.9 11.6 1.5 66.3 63.4 11.0 12.4 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 13.4 13.9 11.6 2.1 72.8 70.2 10.8 12.0 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 13.1 14.5 10.7 1.6 68.4 66.0 11.6 12.7 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 11.4 13.4 12.1 1.7 74.4 68.2 9.8 11.0 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 12.2 13.5 9.9 1.5 67.0 64.2 10.4 11.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 12.0 14.1 12.6 1.7 72.6 67.3 10.2 11.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 7.2 8.6 7.4 1.6 68.7 65.7 6.2 6.8 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 12.9 13.7 12.5 1.6 68.6 65.5 10.9 12.6 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 12.1 14.1 12.1 1.6 71.9 66.4 10.9 11.7 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 12.8 14.2 12.7 1.6 69.7 65.4 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 12.5 13.7 11.5 1.5 67.1 63.9 11.4 12.0 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 12.3 13.3 11.3 1.8 72.1 68.3 10.5 12.0 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 12.2 13.5 9.5 1.5 67.5 66.1 11.0 11.8 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 12.1 14.3 12.0 1.9 74.5 69.1 11.0 11.7 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 12.5 14.3 10.7 1.9 71.2 68.5 11.1 12.1 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 7.2 8.5 9.0 1.5 68.1 64.7 6.4 6.8 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 11.9 13.9 12.5 1.8 74.1 68.5 10.2 11.6 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------