***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.7 13.2 0.7 57.3 54.5 12.5 15.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.5 13.0 0.8 58.6 55.0 13.1 15.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.8 13.4 0.6 56.1 53.6 13.8 15.5 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.7 10.8 0.5 55.3 53.3 5.0 6.7 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.1 11.5 0.4 52.6 52.1 13.6 15.6 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.4 9.5 0.3 49.9 51.6 12.2 14.4 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.7 13.0 0.8 59.4 55.2 13.1 14.6 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.3 10.0 0.3 52.7 52.1 1.4 2.9 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.0 11.9 0.4 52.6 52.0 13.3 15.5 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.8 10.8 0.4 52.9 52.1 13.0 15.7 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.7 11.3 0.3 51.4 51.4 12.9 15.3 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.2 10.9 0.3 51.1 51.3 12.0 14.1 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.4 10.1 0.3 50.9 51.3 13.0 15.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.5 11.8 0.5 52.9 52.5 13.5 16.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.1 11.8 0.6 57.5 54.7 13.5 14.5 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.5 10.8 0.3 50.8 51.7 13.5 15.4 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.8 12.8 0.7 59.8 54.9 12.3 13.8 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 10.5 0.5 54.4 53.3 12.6 15.4 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.4 16.0 13.2 0.7 57.7 54.4 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.6 8.0 0.7 56.4 55.0 7.6 9.4 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.0 12.7 0.5 53.1 52.4 13.4 15.5 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.9 12.8 0.6 56.8 54.0 13.1 15.1 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.0 13.3 0.6 55.9 53.4 13.5 15.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.0 11.8 0.5 53.5 52.6 13.2 16.0 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.9 11.6 0.7 55.5 54.0 13.2 14.5 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.9 10.0 0.4 52.7 51.8 12.7 14.2 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.6 12.5 0.8 57.0 55.0 13.8 15.1 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.7 11.1 0.5 54.3 53.4 13.7 14.5 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.8 9.6 0.6 55.7 54.0 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.4 13.1 0.8 58.2 54.9 13.5 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------