***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.0 12.0 0.7 54.5 54.2 8.8 12.6 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.2 11.9 0.9 58.1 55.1 9.6 12.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.7 12.3 0.7 53.4 53.5 8.9 13.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 6.7 6.0 9.7 0.6 54.5 53.8 0.3 5.9 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.2 13.5 10.4 0.5 51.2 52.3 8.8 13.4 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.1 8.3 0.3 51.5 51.8 7.2 12.8 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 12.8 13.0 11.9 0.9 57.3 55.4 9.4 12.1 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.8 0.9 9.0 0.5 51.8 52.4 -1.3 0.8 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 14.2 13.4 10.8 0.5 50.1 52.2 8.6 13.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.1 9.7 0.4 49.8 51.8 8.2 13.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.1 13.3 10.2 0.4 50.1 51.6 8.9 13.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.5 12.6 9.9 0.5 50.8 52.4 7.3 12.6 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.4 9.0 0.4 50.4 52.6 8.8 13.4 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.6 13.9 10.9 0.7 52.2 53.6 9.9 13.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 13.9 13.2 10.5 0.7 54.3 54.3 9.1 13.1 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.1 9.7 0.4 50.8 52.4 8.9 14.1 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.6 12.5 11.7 0.9 58.1 55.5 9.2 10.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.0 9.5 0.7 52.1 53.6 8.6 12.9 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.5 12.1 0.8 57.0 54.6 9.4 12.7 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.3 6.9 0.9 58.4 56.7 3.9 7.3 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 13.9 13.3 11.6 0.5 51.7 52.6 8.8 13.1 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.1 11.8 0.8 56.9 54.8 9.7 12.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.5 12.2 0.7 54.1 53.8 9.6 13.1 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.3 10.8 0.6 51.6 53.2 9.5 13.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.0 10.4 0.7 53.7 54.1 8.6 12.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.1 12.5 9.0 0.5 53.5 54.0 8.5 12.3 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.0 11.3 0.8 55.4 54.7 9.0 12.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.6 13.8 9.9 0.6 53.5 53.5 8.6 13.7 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.5 8.6 0.8 55.1 55.1 3.5 7.3 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 13.0 12.8 11.9 0.8 56.1 54.8 9.1 12.3 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------