***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 13.0 14.3 12.8 2.9 74.9 70.1 8.6 10.6 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 13.5 14.9 12.8 2.9 76.8 70.3 9.1 10.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 13.4 14.4 13.0 2.7 73.2 68.5 9.6 11.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 5.9 6.8 10.0 2.8 74.7 70.1 1.1 2.7 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.2 15.0 11.2 2.5 72.2 67.4 8.6 11.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 11.9 13.1 9.7 2.8 74.8 67.6 7.6 9.3 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 13.0 14.4 12.8 2.9 77.8 70.9 8.9 9.9 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 3.0 3.8 9.6 2.4 73.7 65.8 -1.3 0.9 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 14.1 14.8 11.9 2.4 72.0 67.2 9.2 10.7 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 14.3 15.0 10.5 2.4 72.1 65.9 8.6 11.0 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 13.8 14.6 11.4 2.4 72.6 66.6 8.3 10.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 13.0 13.7 10.5 2.4 74.2 66.5 8.6 10.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 13.5 14.6 10.8 2.5 74.6 66.5 9.6 10.8 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 14.4 15.5 11.9 2.5 71.8 65.9 9.3 11.8 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 13.6 15.2 11.9 3.0 77.2 72.0 8.4 10.2 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 14.1 15.2 10.9 2.5 73.6 67.1 9.6 11.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.2 14.9 12.4 2.8 76.4 70.3 8.4 9.8 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 14.3 14.8 10.0 2.5 74.0 65.9 9.0 10.6 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 13.4 14.5 12.9 2.8 75.9 69.5 8.7 10.6 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 9.0 10.0 7.7 2.6 78.4 65.9 4.2 7.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.5 12.6 2.5 73.2 67.7 9.3 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 13.3 14.7 12.5 2.6 74.8 69.1 8.9 11.1 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 13.9 15.0 12.9 2.6 74.5 67.9 9.5 11.0 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 14.3 14.8 11.8 2.5 72.1 66.2 9.9 11.2 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 13.4 14.4 11.6 2.8 75.3 69.9 8.1 10.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 13.3 14.2 9.8 2.6 73.9 67.0 9.7 10.6 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 13.1 14.5 12.3 2.9 76.7 70.4 8.9 10.2 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 14.2 14.7 10.8 2.8 74.3 69.7 8.7 10.7 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 9.0 10.1 9.2 2.5 76.3 65.9 3.3 6.4 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 13.3 14.5 12.9 2.9 76.2 70.3 8.6 10.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------