***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 13.0 13.4 12.5 3.2 76.2 74.5 7.4 11.3 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.8 12.0 2.7 74.4 71.8 7.7 9.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 12.9 13.5 12.7 2.9 72.4 70.8 8.6 11.3 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 6.5 6.7 9.8 3.6 75.8 75.9 0.0 3.7 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.9 11.5 3.2 73.5 72.6 8.6 11.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 13.1 13.2 9.9 3.2 76.4 74.3 7.1 10.0 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 11.9 13.5 11.9 2.8 76.9 72.9 7.2 9.2 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 0.9 2.5 9.1 2.3 67.1 66.0 -1.1 0.5 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 13.3 13.2 12.4 3.0 70.4 70.6 9.4 11.9 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 11.6 12.6 10.4 2.5 67.1 66.4 9.1 11.2 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 13.4 14.2 12.0 3.1 72.6 71.1 8.7 11.8 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 12.4 12.6 10.3 2.7 70.9 69.5 8.5 10.7 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 13.4 13.9 11.4 2.9 73.9 71.6 8.9 11.2 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 11.8 13.3 11.7 2.3 64.7 64.2 9.7 11.4 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 13.1 14.3 12.2 3.9 80.2 77.8 6.1 8.5 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 13.8 14.2 11.3 3.1 74.6 73.0 9.4 11.7 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 11.4 12.5 11.3 2.5 75.3 71.1 6.7 9.1 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 11.1 12.5 9.6 2.4 70.4 66.3 9.5 10.7 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 12.2 12.8 12.2 2.7 72.7 70.4 7.5 10.0 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 6.1 6.9 7.0 2.0 69.0 65.3 4.4 5.7 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 13.0 13.2 12.9 2.9 71.0 70.8 8.9 11.5 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 12.3 12.9 11.5 2.3 71.5 69.0 6.9 9.9 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 11.4 13.2 12.3 2.6 70.3 67.7 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 12.6 13.3 11.8 2.5 68.9 66.1 9.6 12.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 12.5 13.4 11.6 3.2 75.4 74.4 7.3 9.5 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 13.0 13.6 9.3 2.5 74.6 71.1 8.8 10.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 12.7 13.4 12.0 3.1 76.8 74.7 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 13.6 14.4 11.1 3.8 78.0 77.1 6.5 9.1 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 48 52 100 7.8 8.9 8.7 2.2 70.3 65.9 4.5 6.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 12.1 13.1 12.2 2.9 75.2 72.7 7.7 9.5 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------