***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.6 4.2 0.6 55.2 54.8 2.8 4.4 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 3.5 3.9 4.1 0.7 58.0 56.9 2.6 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.8 4.3 0.7 56.2 56.0 4.9 5.6 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 0.2 -0.4 1.4 0.5 50.3 54.4 -1.9 -0.4 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.2 1.7 0.5 49.5 54.4 1.8 3.2 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 0.1 2.1 -0.4 0.7 48.8 54.8 1.3 2.1 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 4.1 4.3 4.1 0.7 57.2 57.0 2.6 3.8 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -5.6 -3.7 -0.3 0.4 48.1 53.0 -4.3 -3.6 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.1 2.1 0.6 50.9 55.5 2.6 4.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.2 0.5 0.5 50.6 54.7 2.4 4.2 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.4 3.7 1.1 0.4 49.2 53.7 2.3 3.8 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 0.4 1.9 0.4 0.4 47.5 52.7 1.4 2.0 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.2 -0.1 0.4 48.1 52.9 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.9 1.9 0.6 54.4 55.5 2.9 3.8 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.1 2.6 0.6 55.2 56.2 3.1 3.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.1 0.5 0.4 47.5 53.5 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.8 4.0 4.0 0.7 57.0 56.7 3.0 3.6 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 2.0 1.8 -0.2 0.5 52.8 55.4 0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 3.8 3.8 4.0 0.7 57.9 56.8 2.7 3.5 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -1.3 -2.2 0.2 47.8 51.9 -2.4 -1.0 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.9 3.3 0.6 53.0 54.9 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.5 3.7 0.7 57.5 56.7 2.3 3.3 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.4 3.8 0.7 57.0 56.5 2.2 3.2 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.1 1.8 0.7 55.3 56.5 2.0 3.6 4.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.1 2.8 0.5 53.8 54.5 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 0.9 2.7 -0.2 0.4 45.9 52.2 1.9 3.1 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.8 3.6 0.6 55.1 54.5 3.4 4.6 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.5 1.7 0.5 50.4 54.8 1.6 2.5 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 1.0 0.7 -0.8 0.5 51.5 54.7 -0.4 0.4 2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.8 4.2 0.7 58.1 56.7 3.0 3.7 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------