***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 2.1 1.4 2.9 0.4 53.5 53.6 -0.1 1.3 2.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 2.0 1.6 2.8 0.6 53.2 55.3 0.0 1.5 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.2 3.0 0.5 52.8 55.0 2.1 3.6 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -1.8 0.4 0.6 53.0 54.5 -5.4 -1.8 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 51.1 53.6 -0.4 0.5 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 0.4 -0.1 -1.5 0.6 49.7 55.1 -0.9 -0.1 0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 2.3 2.2 2.8 0.5 53.1 54.8 -0.1 1.8 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -4.8 -5.9 -1.4 0.5 49.3 53.5 -7.9 -5.8 -3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 2.3 1.9 0.9 0.5 51.2 54.0 0.6 1.9 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 2.1 1.7 -0.7 0.5 50.5 53.8 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.5 51.7 53.9 0.0 1.0 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 0.6 -0.2 -0.5 0.6 49.0 53.5 -1.1 0.0 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 1.6 0.9 -1.1 0.4 47.4 53.0 0.0 1.2 2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 2.7 2.3 0.8 0.6 51.2 54.6 1.2 2.3 3.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 2.6 2.6 1.6 0.7 55.3 56.7 0.3 2.1 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 2.5 2.2 -0.5 0.5 50.0 53.6 0.7 2.2 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 2.4 2.3 2.8 0.6 53.5 55.1 0.3 2.1 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 0.2 -0.1 -1.3 0.5 52.2 54.7 -1.0 -0.2 0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 2.0 2.3 2.8 0.6 54.2 55.7 0.0 1.5 3.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -2.4 -3.2 -3.3 0.2 47.2 53.0 -4.0 -2.9 -2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 2.2 1.9 2.2 0.4 52.1 54.1 0.2 1.8 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 1.4 1.9 2.6 0.7 54.8 56.5 0.3 0.9 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 1.3 1.7 2.6 0.6 55.2 55.3 0.2 0.8 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.6 53.3 55.1 0.5 1.1 2.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 1.6 1.3 1.7 0.5 53.8 54.2 0.1 1.2 2.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 0.3 1.2 -1.2 0.4 48.0 52.0 0.4 1.3 1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.2 2.4 0.4 53.4 53.4 0.0 1.9 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 52.7 55.1 -1.2 0.1 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -1.2 -1.9 0.5 51.2 54.6 -3.5 -1.4 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 2.4 2.5 2.9 0.5 53.2 55.1 0.0 2.0 3.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------