***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 2.5 3.6 4.5 3.0 80.2 74.3 -0.2 0.7 1.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 1.7 2.5 4.1 2.8 77.2 73.1 -0.3 0.3 1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 4.6 5.8 4.6 3.0 79.8 75.1 1.2 2.4 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 -1.8 -0.1 2.1 3.2 83.9 78.8 -5.0 -3.9 -1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 0.9 1.9 2.9 3.2 82.6 77.6 -1.7 -0.9 0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 0.2 1.0 0.6 3.3 84.6 78.5 -2.4 -1.1 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 1.9 2.5 4.1 2.8 77.2 73.1 -0.3 0.5 1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 -4.1 -2.7 0.5 3.1 81.6 76.8 -8.1 -6.4 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 2.3 3.6 3.0 3.2 83.1 79.3 -0.3 0.3 1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 1.8 2.9 1.3 3.1 81.2 77.1 -0.6 0.5 2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 1.8 3.0 2.3 3.3 84.6 79.9 -0.7 0.3 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 0.5 1.4 1.5 3.2 83.1 77.8 -2.0 -1.2 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 1.3 2.3 1.2 2.9 80.9 76.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 3.3 4.2 2.5 2.9 80.3 75.6 0.0 1.3 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 2.0 3.3 3.4 3.3 85.4 81.6 -0.3 1.1 1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 2.2 3.4 1.7 3.1 83.5 78.3 -0.1 0.3 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 1.9 3.3 3.9 2.7 79.1 73.3 -0.1 0.5 1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 0.1 0.8 0.7 3.0 80.4 76.1 -2.1 -1.1 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 1.8 2.3 4.1 2.8 77.3 73.4 -0.4 0.6 1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 -2.2 -1.6 -1.1 2.6 76.4 71.1 -5.4 -3.1 -2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 1.5 2.6 4.1 3.1 80.9 77.1 -0.9 0.0 0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 1.3 1.9 4.0 2.7 77.4 73.6 -0.4 0.0 1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 1.5 2.3 3.9 2.8 79.3 74.1 -0.8 0.4 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 1.9 3.3 2.6 3.0 81.7 77.2 -0.6 0.2 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 1.8 2.7 3.7 3.1 80.6 74.9 -0.6 0.3 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 1.4 2.2 0.9 3.0 80.3 74.8 -1.4 0.1 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 1.8 2.4 4.2 3.0 79.0 73.3 -0.4 0.7 1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 0.2 1.6 2.5 3.2 84.6 79.9 -1.8 -1.3 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 -0.5 0.8 -0.1 2.9 79.8 74.3 -3.7 -2.6 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 1.9 2.9 4.3 2.9 78.4 73.6 -0.1 0.5 1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------