***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 4.0 4.6 5.2 4.2 88.3 86.3 -1.1 0.2 3.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 2.8 3.8 4.5 3.8 84.6 83.3 -1.1 0.4 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 4.8 6.1 5.2 4.1 87.6 85.6 1.1 2.5 3.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 -0.6 0.9 2.2 3.9 90.0 87.6 -5.4 -4.4 -1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 2.3 3.8 3.9 4.4 92.3 89.3 -1.3 -0.3 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 1.3 3.1 1.1 3.9 93.9 90.3 -2.8 -1.3 0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 3.2 3.7 4.5 3.9 84.4 83.3 -0.6 0.7 1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 -3.6 -2.5 0.7 3.3 86.0 82.6 -8.1 -5.9 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 3.8 4.6 3.7 4.2 93.3 89.9 -0.7 0.9 2.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 3.0 4.5 1.5 3.5 86.9 83.3 -0.5 0.3 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 3.1 4.6 3.2 4.1 92.4 89.3 -0.8 0.1 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 1.1 2.9 2.3 3.8 90.5 86.4 -2.3 -0.6 0.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 2.3 4.4 2.6 3.9 93.0 88.6 -1.0 -0.2 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 3.3 4.0 2.9 3.6 84.2 82.2 0.4 0.8 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 3.2 4.4 3.5 3.9 92.8 90.1 -0.8 0.5 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 3.9 5.1 2.8 4.0 92.3 88.9 -0.4 0.8 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.5 82.0 80.9 -0.6 0.8 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 0.4 1.5 1.1 3.3 84.1 81.4 -2.9 -1.2 -0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 3.0 3.8 4.4 3.8 85.4 83.9 -0.9 0.6 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 -1.9 -0.6 -0.2 3.2 82.5 79.7 -6.4 -4.3 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 2.8 4.5 4.9 4.3 91.6 88.7 -0.7 0.5 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 2.9 3.2 4.0 3.3 80.3 79.7 -1.1 0.8 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 2.5 3.0 4.2 3.8 86.0 84.3 -1.2 0.3 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 2.7 3.6 3.1 3.6 86.5 84.1 -0.5 0.1 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 2.6 4.1 4.6 4.2 88.5 87.2 -0.5 0.2 0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 2.3 3.3 1.9 3.7 89.8 86.9 -1.0 0.1 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 4.0 4.7 5.0 4.2 87.2 86.0 -0.8 0.3 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 2.0 2.8 2.7 3.9 90.4 87.7 -2.3 -1.1 0.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 0.2 1.0 0.2 3.3 83.9 80.4 -3.6 -1.7 -0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 3.7 4.3 4.8 3.9 85.8 84.2 -0.6 1.0 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------