***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 47.7 103.3 59.2 53.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 32.7 27.9 44.2 100.4 53.4 50.0 19.4 26.5 32.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 24.8 43.9 48.3 102.3 58.6 52.0 21.4 37.4 55.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 43.7 49.2 57.8 105.8 58.4 54.4 34.7 40.0 50.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 39.7 39.1 56.7 105.4 59.2 54.2 27.7 36.2 42.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 40.5 41.6 65.1 110.5 64.7 56.9 24.4 38.2 41.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 31.3 30.1 42.8 98.4 51.9 49.2 21.4 28.6 37.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 75.3 76.3 61.5 107.0 56.3 55.3 56.1 71.4 80.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 25.0 44.3 55.2 103.4 59.3 53.1 24.9 34.5 48.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 30.4 48.8 61.5 105.7 56.9 54.4 29.5 38.7 61.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 44.4 46.5 54.7 106.6 58.0 55.1 26.4 39.0 57.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 41.7 38.8 53.9 107.3 56.6 54.9 30.9 35.9 51.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 46.4 47.5 59.8 109.8 62.7 56.9 34.3 41.9 49.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 62.6 60.0 60.8 106.1 61.0 53.2 42.7 52.3 62.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 20.4 52.4 57.0 107.8 58.7 54.9 29.0 37.2 58.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 39.5 39.8 57.2 109.8 62.4 57.2 28.1 35.4 43.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 30.0 27.5 42.3 100.0 53.0 50.7 17.2 26.8 30.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 27.0 38.5 66.9 104.8 56.7 54.2 32.3 36.4 45.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 38.8 36.6 45.9 101.8 53.9 50.7 23.4 33.3 43.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 40.7 38.6 78.5 107.0 58.7 56.6 27.3 35.9 47.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 39.6 42.0 50.8 102.5 59.8 53.1 22.7 35.4 45.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 31.9 27.9 45.6 103.4 53.7 51.8 22.6 27.3 33.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 41.2 38.1 49.3 102.9 57.1 51.2 24.4 36.5 47.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 33.3 60.6 59.1 104.2 59.3 53.0 39.2 48.9 64.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 38.9 36.7 57.2 105.4 61.3 55.0 22.0 33.6 37.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 39.3 38.7 57.5 107.4 55.8 54.0 21.0 35.2 40.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 34.8 36.1 53.2 104.4 59.9 54.1 24.8 30.1 40.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 23.6 41.3 57.2 107.0 58.2 55.1 22.0 36.0 44.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 67.6 66.0 71.1 105.8 59.4 55.0 48.9 60.2 77.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 32.8 32.8 45.0 100.5 55.5 50.0 24.2 28.9 40.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------