***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 11.7 118.9 66.5 54.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.5 11.0 117.2 66.0 57.2 2.9 4.9 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.8 11.5 119.2 65.8 55.0 2.6 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.8 16.4 12.7 112.3 63.4 54.0 6.5 9.5 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.5 8.6 12.4 115.4 65.3 54.7 2.2 6.9 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.7 16.5 14.9 120.9 69.4 56.9 5.6 7.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.6 10.6 111.6 64.5 54.6 1.8 4.3 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.7 24.8 13.4 118.6 67.8 56.1 8.4 13.4 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.8 12.0 12.5 117.5 67.2 55.1 1.2 5.8 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.9 14.9 13.9 119.9 68.2 55.8 2.2 7.4 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.3 16.3 11.8 119.7 68.6 55.1 3.0 4.8 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.9 16.9 11.4 117.8 67.1 56.2 2.7 10.0 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.3 19.3 13.2 121.6 69.2 57.7 5.3 12.9 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.4 24.3 14.3 119.3 69.2 57.0 6.1 12.1 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 16.8 12.2 110.6 67.9 54.1 2.0 6.7 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.9 16.3 12.5 122.1 69.7 56.8 2.0 6.9 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.2 8.3 10.5 114.0 65.3 57.2 2.8 4.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.1 11.3 15.5 121.2 71.3 56.5 3.4 9.3 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.6 11.5 11.3 119.9 67.5 57.9 1.9 6.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.4 13.4 17.9 124.8 68.4 58.3 5.6 7.6 12.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.4 11.2 11.7 119.5 68.4 55.2 2.8 6.4 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.9 12.5 11.4 121.1 68.0 58.8 3.7 7.5 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.6 13.2 11.8 117.8 67.4 56.7 4.4 8.9 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.4 13.8 13.7 118.5 69.9 55.5 4.4 9.0 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.6 11.5 13.6 118.8 67.3 55.3 4.2 6.9 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.9 12.6 119.0 65.5 56.7 3.6 6.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.8 11.5 13.2 119.6 67.1 55.1 2.3 4.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.2 14.1 12.5 111.4 67.3 54.3 3.1 7.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 21.8 16.5 123.3 71.2 57.6 8.2 12.0 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.1 11.1 117.2 67.4 56.0 2.8 4.4 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------