***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.7 102.7 59.4 50.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.0 10.9 95.4 60.3 49.4 1.0 3.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.3 6.7 12.0 99.7 55.3 50.9 2.3 5.6 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.0 13.8 98.0 60.5 49.7 4.9 8.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.7 10.4 13.5 97.0 55.5 49.1 4.6 9.4 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.3 15.4 99.6 55.4 48.8 2.3 6.9 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.5 4.9 10.8 96.6 58.3 49.6 1.0 3.8 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.5 19.7 15.0 103.8 56.9 51.9 7.3 15.1 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.1 7.9 13.1 94.1 53.7 48.2 4.2 6.6 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.0 12.2 14.7 98.1 54.9 50.2 5.8 11.9 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.7 13.6 12.9 97.4 57.0 49.5 3.6 12.0 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.5 13.0 104.7 60.2 51.8 4.4 7.6 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.2 10.8 14.3 103.8 58.1 50.9 3.8 8.4 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.7 11.6 15.2 104.9 61.3 52.5 6.0 10.1 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.5 9.9 13.2 95.7 61.6 48.8 0.8 3.3 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.4 13.3 100.0 58.1 49.8 3.6 7.2 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.9 10.0 91.2 56.2 48.0 2.3 5.7 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.5 11.7 16.5 100.2 58.8 51.4 4.3 7.8 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.4 6.9 11.3 97.3 60.0 50.5 0.7 4.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.2 9.5 20.2 109.8 59.2 54.4 4.1 5.8 11.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.5 12.0 95.4 56.3 49.0 3.8 6.8 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.9 11.0 96.5 58.1 50.5 1.7 5.5 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.7 6.2 12.2 100.9 60.2 51.9 1.9 3.0 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.6 14.6 101.4 58.8 51.5 5.4 10.4 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.5 7.9 13.7 100.9 59.9 50.3 2.0 6.8 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.1 13.4 100.7 59.1 50.8 3.1 7.2 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.3 6.6 13.3 105.1 60.8 51.3 3.0 4.9 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.7 8.9 13.4 96.7 63.5 49.6 0.8 5.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.6 21.5 17.9 104.8 59.5 53.3 6.7 14.2 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.6 5.8 11.4 98.7 60.6 50.4 1.5 3.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------