***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.7 54.5 34.3 31.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 0.9 1.1 7.0 60.9 39.2 34.5 0.9 2.5 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 1.8 3.5 7.4 58.6 38.6 33.7 3.1 4.4 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.3 4.3 9.2 64.1 45.7 36.9 3.5 6.1 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 1.5 2.6 9.1 65.6 45.7 38.2 1.6 3.2 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 1.6 2.5 11.4 69.7 42.4 38.6 1.6 3.9 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 0.9 1.1 6.5 56.9 35.9 33.0 0.5 2.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.1 11.0 11.1 72.8 45.9 40.4 7.5 11.8 15.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.6 9.4 66.8 45.4 38.3 1.8 4.4 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.6 5.2 10.9 70.7 45.2 39.4 2.3 7.3 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.9 9.1 68.1 46.4 39.0 2.4 6.3 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.2 9.5 71.4 45.9 40.1 2.5 3.7 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 1.8 3.9 10.2 69.3 42.1 38.5 2.4 4.7 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 2.7 4.3 10.7 69.9 45.0 39.0 2.1 6.9 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 0.7 1.2 10.0 70.3 47.7 38.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.2 3.4 9.5 69.3 44.4 38.7 1.9 5.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 0.8 1.8 7.1 66.6 42.4 35.6 0.5 2.5 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.1 12.6 72.9 44.9 40.1 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.6 1.6 7.4 62.8 39.6 35.3 1.4 4.0 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 1.5 3.5 15.0 75.1 44.9 40.0 2.8 3.6 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 1.5 2.5 7.9 60.5 40.7 35.5 1.2 3.4 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 0.9 1.6 7.7 70.0 42.8 37.3 0.5 2.4 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 1.0 1.5 8.2 64.5 41.7 36.4 0.5 2.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 2.6 5.2 10.5 68.3 43.5 38.6 2.1 6.1 7.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.4 1.0 8.4 59.0 36.9 33.3 0.6 3.6 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.1 2.2 10.2 70.1 45.6 39.4 1.0 2.2 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 1.7 1.2 7.6 56.2 33.6 31.2 1.1 4.9 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.8 2.4 9.5 66.7 46.2 37.8 2.0 3.2 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 3.7 7.8 13.7 74.7 44.9 41.2 4.8 8.3 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 0.8 0.9 6.8 58.0 37.1 33.2 0.6 2.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------