***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 17.6 138.9 71.6 65.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 12.2 10.7 15.3 130.8 72.6 62.8 1.3 4.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 8.5 15.6 17.5 134.3 71.2 62.7 1.1 6.3 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 13.3 17.7 22.2 148.0 77.4 66.1 4.1 6.9 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 12.3 15.6 21.7 142.6 75.0 65.9 2.5 7.3 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 12.8 17.7 23.4 158.5 82.0 70.5 2.3 4.2 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 11.4 6.8 14.9 130.5 71.1 62.9 1.7 2.8 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 22.7 22.9 21.9 133.7 70.6 64.0 8.6 13.8 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.4 13.6 20.2 136.7 72.9 64.7 1.5 4.6 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 10.9 11.7 22.0 135.9 72.7 65.0 3.5 7.6 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 10.5 13.8 21.0 140.5 74.7 65.2 1.6 4.6 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.0 11.0 20.0 134.8 72.4 63.1 2.3 4.5 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 11.4 14.2 22.1 146.6 76.5 67.4 2.3 6.7 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.6 21.0 20.5 133.4 71.3 62.2 4.5 10.4 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 10.7 14.4 21.5 157.0 78.2 67.7 1.6 5.0 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 11.4 13.1 21.8 147.8 75.2 66.7 2.1 5.8 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 8.4 8.0 14.7 128.2 70.2 61.5 0.9 3.0 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 7.6 14.5 22.3 128.8 65.8 62.3 1.8 5.8 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 13.9 16.7 15.9 129.8 71.8 61.8 2.1 5.9 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.1 9.3 25.4 123.1 63.3 61.0 2.7 7.6 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.5 17.7 19.1 136.1 71.8 64.2 1.7 3.4 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.4 9.6 15.5 126.3 71.5 59.4 1.4 5.9 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 12.8 14.6 17.2 130.5 71.3 61.4 2.7 7.3 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.7 19.7 20.2 132.0 68.3 62.5 2.5 8.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 11.3 12.1 21.5 143.4 72.8 66.1 0.8 5.7 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 9.9 13.4 21.4 140.9 75.3 66.9 1.0 4.1 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.2 9.1 19.2 138.3 71.6 65.0 1.4 4.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 12.5 20.3 21.8 154.0 78.6 67.0 1.4 3.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 14.4 16.0 23.0 125.1 65.3 60.9 4.2 12.0 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 13.9 15.5 15.7 130.9 71.9 62.5 1.7 4.4 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------