***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 0.0 13.0 2.1 79.7 75.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 13.7 14.5 12.9 2.0 76.4 74.2 10.7 11.9 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 13.9 14.6 13.1 1.9 75.4 72.8 11.1 12.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 6.2 6.8 10.9 1.9 74.3 71.4 3.3 4.5 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 14.2 14.8 11.3 1.8 74.2 70.5 11.3 12.5 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.1 13.5 9.3 1.5 69.6 66.8 10.2 11.3 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 13.4 14.3 12.8 2.0 77.8 75.0 10.2 11.5 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 2.6 2.5 9.6 1.4 66.7 66.2 0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.6 12.0 1.8 73.7 70.2 11.3 12.2 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 13.7 13.9 10.6 1.6 68.8 67.5 11.1 12.2 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 14.0 14.4 11.0 1.7 72.2 69.0 11.4 12.2 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 13.2 13.6 10.5 1.5 68.5 67.1 10.6 11.8 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.4 14.4 10.1 1.5 68.0 66.9 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 14.1 14.4 11.8 1.6 70.6 67.6 11.1 12.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 13.7 14.4 11.4 1.9 74.7 71.9 11.1 11.9 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 14.8 15.0 10.6 1.6 70.2 68.2 11.5 12.8 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.0 13.6 12.5 1.9 76.1 73.4 9.9 11.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 13.3 13.5 9.9 1.5 67.9 66.2 10.7 11.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 13.8 14.2 13.0 1.9 74.9 73.3 10.5 11.8 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 8.5 8.7 7.3 1.3 66.5 64.8 6.3 6.9 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.8 12.6 1.9 76.0 71.7 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 13.7 14.3 12.6 1.7 72.6 71.8 10.9 11.8 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 14.4 14.8 12.9 1.8 73.7 71.7 11.0 12.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 13.8 14.3 11.7 1.6 70.9 68.1 11.5 12.2 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 13.6 14.2 11.5 2.0 77.2 73.8 10.8 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 13.7 14.1 9.6 1.4 70.1 67.1 11.0 12.1 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.7 12.3 2.1 78.7 74.7 11.0 12.1 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.6 11.1 1.8 72.8 70.1 11.4 12.3 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 8.6 8.6 8.9 1.5 68.1 66.0 6.2 7.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 13.7 14.4 13.0 2.0 76.8 74.6 10.4 11.8 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------