***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 14.3 0.8 57.6 55.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.2 15.4 14.2 0.7 55.5 55.9 14.2 15.0 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.4 14.4 0.7 56.0 54.9 14.5 16.1 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.5 12.4 0.5 52.3 53.4 5.3 7.1 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.0 12.7 0.6 51.2 53.6 14.5 15.9 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.3 16.8 11.0 0.7 57.8 54.8 12.5 14.6 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.9 14.1 0.7 57.3 56.2 14.0 14.7 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.6 11.3 0.6 55.3 53.7 1.8 3.3 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.7 13.2 0.6 51.6 53.5 14.1 15.6 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.0 12.1 0.6 53.8 53.2 13.8 16.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.5 12.4 0.6 53.1 53.8 14.0 16.2 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.6 16.1 12.1 0.7 54.7 54.2 13.3 14.9 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 16.4 17.7 11.7 0.7 54.8 54.9 14.4 15.7 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.1 16.4 13.1 0.5 50.8 52.3 14.2 16.3 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.6 12.5 0.5 54.4 53.6 13.5 14.6 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.9 17.5 12.1 0.6 54.3 54.2 14.3 16.1 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 14.4 14.2 13.8 0.6 56.3 55.3 13.2 13.9 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 13.6 16.3 11.4 0.6 53.4 52.6 13.4 15.9 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 13.3 15.8 14.3 0.7 54.7 55.4 14.0 15.1 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.5 9.0 0.6 54.4 53.9 8.3 9.4 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.9 13.9 0.7 53.5 53.8 14.3 15.6 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.7 13.9 0.5 54.3 54.2 13.7 15.1 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 16.2 16.1 14.3 0.6 53.8 54.6 14.4 15.7 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 13.9 16.5 13.0 0.6 53.5 52.7 14.4 16.3 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.5 12.8 0.6 54.1 54.3 13.7 15.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 15.4 16.7 11.3 0.8 57.4 55.4 13.5 14.6 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.4 13.5 0.7 56.6 55.2 14.6 15.7 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.8 12.5 0.5 53.3 53.5 13.3 15.7 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.3 10.7 10.3 0.6 52.6 52.7 8.1 10.6 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.6 14.3 0.7 56.7 56.1 14.4 15.0 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------