***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 13.3 1.9 70.0 66.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.4 13.1 1.8 69.5 66.5 9.9 11.2 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 15.5 15.1 13.4 1.9 69.9 66.2 9.3 12.6 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 6.0 8.0 11.5 2.0 71.6 66.0 0.7 5.3 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 13.5 15.3 11.8 2.0 66.8 65.6 8.9 12.7 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 14.8 14.8 10.1 2.0 67.1 65.6 7.2 12.5 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 14.1 13.8 13.0 1.7 68.5 66.7 9.8 11.3 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 1.1 4.7 10.2 1.7 66.1 63.5 -1.6 0.2 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 13.2 15.4 12.3 1.9 67.4 65.5 8.4 12.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 13.3 15.7 11.1 1.8 66.3 64.2 7.9 12.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 13.5 15.7 11.5 1.9 65.9 64.9 8.6 12.7 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 12.9 15.0 11.1 1.7 65.0 63.8 7.2 12.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 13.6 15.5 10.7 1.8 65.1 64.5 8.4 12.8 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 15.3 15.4 12.3 1.8 67.8 64.3 9.8 12.6 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 14.0 14.8 11.7 2.1 69.3 66.5 9.6 13.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 14.3 16.4 11.1 1.9 65.8 64.9 8.9 13.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 13.4 13.4 12.8 1.6 67.7 65.6 9.2 10.5 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 14.8 15.4 10.4 1.8 66.6 63.6 7.9 12.0 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 15.2 14.5 13.3 1.8 70.1 66.2 10.1 11.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 10.2 11.3 7.9 1.6 68.2 63.2 3.5 7.0 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 13.6 15.1 12.9 1.9 69.4 65.9 8.9 12.7 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 14.7 14.7 12.9 1.6 70.5 65.1 9.9 11.3 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 15.6 15.6 13.3 1.8 71.0 65.6 9.9 12.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 15.3 15.7 12.1 1.8 68.0 64.6 9.6 12.5 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 14.8 15.1 11.8 1.9 70.7 66.4 9.3 12.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 12.6 15.6 10.3 1.8 66.2 65.3 7.9 11.8 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 15.1 14.5 12.5 1.8 69.5 66.6 9.6 12.2 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 14.6 16.0 11.7 2.1 70.4 65.9 8.9 14.1 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 9.9 11.0 9.4 1.7 67.8 63.5 2.9 6.9 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 14.8 14.3 13.3 1.8 70.2 66.6 9.9 11.5 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------