***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 0.0 12.8 2.9 78.5 74.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 14.3 15.2 12.6 2.8 78.2 74.8 9.0 11.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 14.0 14.6 12.8 2.8 76.9 73.0 10.3 11.6 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 6.2 6.6 10.6 2.7 75.3 71.8 1.3 3.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 13.8 14.2 10.9 2.6 74.2 71.0 9.8 11.5 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 11.6 11.9 8.8 2.0 69.3 65.2 8.1 9.2 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 14.1 15.0 12.6 2.9 79.1 75.9 9.1 10.7 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 3.1 3.8 9.4 2.3 73.6 68.5 -1.4 1.2 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 13.9 14.5 11.5 2.6 73.9 70.5 9.7 11.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 13.6 14.5 10.3 2.4 73.6 68.9 9.4 11.1 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 13.3 14.1 10.6 2.5 73.7 69.7 9.6 11.2 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 12.7 13.1 10.2 2.3 73.2 68.4 9.2 10.8 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.9 9.6 2.2 73.2 67.1 9.7 11.6 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 14.1 13.9 11.4 2.3 71.7 68.4 10.1 12.8 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.9 10.8 2.6 74.1 71.5 9.3 11.2 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 13.6 14.4 10.1 2.3 73.5 68.3 10.1 11.5 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 13.9 14.9 12.3 2.7 78.4 75.2 8.2 10.6 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 13.6 14.5 9.7 2.3 73.5 67.8 9.1 11.4 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 14.1 15.0 12.7 2.7 77.6 73.5 9.3 11.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 8.9 9.3 7.3 2.3 72.9 68.2 4.7 7.5 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 14.2 14.6 12.2 2.7 75.2 72.1 9.8 11.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 14.3 15.1 12.4 2.6 76.6 73.3 9.3 11.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 14.4 15.1 12.6 2.6 76.4 71.5 9.5 12.3 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.1 11.3 2.4 74.3 69.2 10.5 12.2 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 14.1 15.0 11.3 2.9 78.3 74.5 9.3 10.7 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.8 9.3 2.1 73.0 67.3 9.8 11.4 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 14.1 14.9 12.1 3.0 78.5 75.4 9.6 10.9 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 14.0 14.9 10.6 2.4 73.4 69.9 9.2 11.4 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 8.8 8.7 8.6 2.3 72.9 68.0 4.4 7.5 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 14.1 14.9 12.8 2.8 78.5 74.8 9.1 10.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------