***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 9999.0 0.0 11.7 2.7 65.2 67.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 48 52 100 12.3 12.1 11.6 2.6 65.7 67.1 7.6 10.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 12.1 12.8 11.7 2.4 64.0 64.1 8.6 11.9 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 3.4 4.5 9.0 2.4 59.6 62.6 0.3 3.2 5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 11.5 12.6 9.9 2.1 58.2 60.1 8.3 11.4 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 97 3 100 10.3 10.4 7.4 1.2 51.5 53.4 7.0 10.2 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 46 54 100 11.9 12.2 11.6 2.7 66.6 68.4 7.0 10.7 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 96 4 100 0.9 0.7 7.6 1.1 49.0 52.5 -0.5 0.8 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 93 7 100 12.3 12.4 10.9 2.1 59.9 59.4 9.1 12.1 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 95 5 100 12.0 12.0 9.0 1.6 53.4 55.3 8.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 95 5 100 11.9 12.5 9.6 1.8 54.0 56.8 8.3 11.7 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 97 3 100 11.1 11.0 8.4 1.3 49.5 53.2 8.3 11.0 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 97 3 100 12.0 11.8 8.5 1.3 49.0 53.5 8.9 11.9 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 94 6 100 12.5 12.7 10.5 1.7 54.8 57.2 9.4 12.3 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 10.6 11.9 10.6 2.6 62.5 64.0 5.9 10.3 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 96 4 100 11.9 12.4 9.1 1.7 53.4 56.4 9.5 11.8 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 11.8 11.8 11.2 2.5 64.8 67.6 6.6 10.2 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 11.4 11.2 8.1 1.3 51.8 54.6 9.0 11.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 11.5 12.0 11.7 2.4 64.8 65.5 7.7 11.2 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 6.1 5.7 5.1 0.6 46.3 50.7 5.0 5.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 12.1 12.4 11.5 2.2 62.3 61.7 9.0 11.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 11.5 12.3 11.2 2.3 63.7 65.4 7.0 11.2 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 12.1 12.9 11.6 2.2 63.2 62.7 9.1 12.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 94 6 100 12.5 12.7 10.2 1.7 56.4 57.4 9.1 12.3 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 10.7 12.1 10.3 2.6 62.8 65.7 7.2 10.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 95 5 100 11.1 10.7 7.3 1.0 47.5 51.2 9.7 11.0 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 11.5 12.4 11.1 2.6 64.7 67.4 7.7 11.2 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 94 6 100 10.4 12.4 9.7 2.2 58.3 60.5 6.2 10.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 94 6 100 6.2 6.1 7.1 1.2 50.8 54.1 4.3 6.0 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 49 51 100 12.1 12.3 11.8 2.6 66.2 67.3 7.7 10.9 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------