***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 9999.0 0.0 3.7 1.9 76.9 76.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 2.7 3.1 3.5 1.9 78.8 77.0 0.7 1.2 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 5.2 5.6 3.4 1.9 78.6 77.7 2.8 3.6 4.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 -1.2 -0.9 1.2 1.9 77.4 77.4 -3.3 -2.8 -1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.9 77.6 77.2 0.6 1.3 1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 1.1 1.4 -0.4 1.9 78.8 77.4 -0.7 0.3 0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 2.9 3.2 3.6 1.9 78.6 77.5 1.2 1.5 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 -3.8 -3.5 -0.1 1.9 74.8 74.4 -6.4 -5.7 -4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 3.1 3.3 1.9 1.9 77.6 76.3 0.8 2.1 2.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 2.7 3.0 0.5 1.9 75.0 74.7 1.1 1.7 2.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 2.6 2.8 1.0 1.8 76.4 76.0 1.0 1.6 2.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 1.2 1.4 0.6 1.7 75.1 74.3 -0.4 0.5 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 2.1 2.2 0.2 1.6 73.8 74.2 0.6 1.6 1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 3.2 3.5 1.9 1.9 75.4 75.7 1.7 2.1 3.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 3.1 3.7 1.8 2.0 80.2 78.1 1.2 2.0 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 3.3 3.5 0.6 1.7 75.1 75.6 1.4 2.2 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 3.1 3.5 3.3 1.8 77.1 76.2 1.1 1.7 2.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 0.8 0.9 -0.2 2.0 74.0 74.3 -1.0 0.1 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 2.7 3.1 3.4 1.9 78.7 77.3 1.0 1.5 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 -1.9 -1.6 -1.8 2.0 74.6 73.6 -3.5 -2.8 -2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 2.8 2.9 2.9 1.9 77.4 76.1 1.1 1.9 2.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 2.5 2.9 3.2 1.7 75.9 75.7 0.5 1.2 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 2.5 2.8 3.0 1.9 78.0 77.6 0.7 1.3 2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 2.5 2.8 1.6 1.9 76.2 75.9 1.0 1.6 2.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 78.8 77.1 1.0 2.0 2.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 2.2 2.2 0.2 1.5 71.6 72.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 2.6 2.8 3.0 1.9 78.0 76.8 1.2 2.2 2.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.9 76.3 76.6 -0.4 0.6 1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 0.3 0.9 -0.7 2.1 76.0 75.0 -2.3 -1.7 -0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 3.3 3.6 3.6 1.9 78.7 77.5 1.3 2.0 2.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------