***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 4.7 1.1 65.6 61.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 4.8 4.6 4.5 1.0 67.8 61.9 2.8 3.7 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 6.6 7.0 4.4 1.1 68.3 62.7 5.1 6.3 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.8 0.9 2.0 0.9 62.9 59.9 -1.4 0.4 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 4.1 5.1 2.1 0.9 65.4 60.4 1.2 3.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 2.7 3.3 0.4 1.0 62.2 60.6 0.8 2.3 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 4.9 5.0 4.5 1.1 66.7 61.8 3.0 4.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -2.4 -2.2 0.7 1.0 64.5 60.9 -4.9 -3.2 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 4.7 5.4 2.8 1.0 65.6 61.2 2.5 4.2 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 4.3 5.1 1.3 1.0 64.9 61.0 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.8 1.8 0.9 65.4 60.2 2.0 3.7 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 2.6 3.2 1.5 0.9 64.1 60.3 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 3.9 4.5 1.0 0.9 63.1 59.0 1.4 3.6 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.9 2.6 0.9 63.9 60.5 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.2 5.1 2.5 0.9 64.4 59.6 2.7 3.9 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 4.4 5.6 1.4 0.9 64.5 59.5 2.9 3.8 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.8 4.3 0.9 65.2 60.4 3.1 3.8 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 1.6 2.4 0.6 1.0 64.0 61.1 0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 4.9 5.0 4.3 1.0 68.1 62.0 2.4 3.7 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -0.3 -1.1 1.0 60.0 59.8 -2.8 -0.8 0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 4.2 5.4 3.8 1.0 65.1 61.5 2.3 3.8 5.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 3.5 4.1 4.1 0.8 63.4 59.3 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.6 4.3 3.9 1.0 66.1 62.2 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 3.8 4.8 2.5 1.0 66.1 61.9 2.3 3.5 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.4 5.1 2.8 0.9 63.2 60.4 2.9 3.9 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 3.5 3.9 1.2 0.9 59.8 59.0 1.5 3.2 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.1 5.8 3.8 1.0 64.3 61.0 2.8 4.7 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 2.8 3.3 2.2 0.9 63.6 59.9 1.6 2.4 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 1.5 2.0 -0.1 1.0 61.8 60.5 -0.8 1.1 2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.5 4.6 1.1 68.1 62.5 3.3 4.3 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------