***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 0.0 3.1 2.1 75.7 70.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 2.4 2.8 3.0 2.2 76.6 72.7 -0.4 0.7 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 5.0 6.2 3.0 2.3 78.8 72.7 1.3 2.5 3.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 -1.5 -1.0 0.7 2.4 74.5 72.9 -5.2 -3.5 -2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 1.2 1.4 0.9 2.3 73.6 72.1 -1.3 -0.3 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 0.2 0.2 -0.6 2.5 75.8 73.9 -1.6 -0.9 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.2 75.9 72.2 -0.4 0.4 1.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 -4.1 -3.7 -0.3 2.4 71.3 72.1 -7.4 -6.8 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 2.6 3.0 1.4 2.2 73.3 70.2 -0.1 0.7 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 2.3 2.3 0.2 2.5 71.5 71.1 -0.2 1.1 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 1.8 1.9 0.7 2.3 73.7 73.6 -0.4 0.8 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 0.8 0.9 0.3 2.2 71.4 71.3 -1.4 -0.7 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 1.7 1.4 -0.2 2.1 68.8 69.9 -0.2 0.5 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 3.0 3.4 1.5 2.4 77.3 73.0 0.0 1.7 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 2.3 2.5 1.1 2.3 73.5 71.7 -0.2 1.0 1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 2.5 2.3 0.3 2.2 70.6 72.1 0.2 1.1 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.1 76.9 71.8 -0.1 0.7 2.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 0.6 0.4 -0.4 2.7 70.7 70.9 -1.8 -0.4 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.2 77.4 72.9 -0.4 0.6 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -1.8 -1.7 -2.0 2.7 68.1 69.7 -4.3 -3.1 -1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.1 74.3 70.1 -0.2 0.1 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.0 75.4 71.7 -0.2 0.3 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 2.1 2.9 2.6 2.2 79.2 73.0 -0.4 0.3 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 2.0 2.4 1.3 2.5 75.5 72.7 0.0 0.7 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 1.9 1.9 1.5 2.2 73.5 71.9 -0.2 0.5 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 1.7 1.6 -0.1 1.9 68.3 68.7 -0.6 0.4 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.1 73.8 71.0 -0.1 0.7 1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 0.3 0.3 0.9 2.3 72.4 71.8 -1.1 -0.7 0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 -0.1 0.1 -0.9 2.8 71.8 72.3 -3.4 -2.5 -0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 2.3 2.7 3.1 2.2 77.3 72.7 -0.3 0.7 1.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------