***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 31.0 30.1 49.6 103.4 56.2 52.5 20.9 25.9 41.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 18.4 27.5 44.4 94.6 50.3 45.9 20.5 27.3 31.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 23.8 51.7 53.5 109.4 66.9 56.7 25.6 38.0 48.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 44.3 46.9 61.1 111.8 63.4 56.3 30.3 40.1 48.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 41.0 45.2 62.5 115.1 66.0 59.1 32.0 36.3 45.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 45.1 45.3 70.3 123.6 72.3 65.0 24.9 39.0 43.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 17.0 25.1 42.3 91.3 43.9 43.9 22.5 28.1 33.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 83.4 91.2 71.3 123.3 72.8 65.4 55.9 69.1 79.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 46.7 47.9 64.1 118.8 69.0 62.9 24.9 35.6 46.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 53.0 62.4 71.6 123.2 73.2 65.7 30.0 36.5 60.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 49.7 54.7 62.2 120.2 68.3 61.9 26.0 37.8 53.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 48.7 48.6 62.5 122.8 71.6 64.1 30.6 34.1 40.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 51.6 52.1 64.3 119.2 70.7 62.7 31.7 39.3 48.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 61.2 63.2 68.5 114.0 64.4 59.8 40.1 54.5 64.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 44.6 53.2 56.0 108.3 58.6 54.9 20.5 39.3 57.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 37.2 40.9 62.0 118.9 67.9 61.4 28.6 33.2 38.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 15.8 20.5 39.3 86.6 40.3 40.5 17.1 25.5 32.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 51.0 57.0 78.9 123.3 76.8 67.7 33.0 37.2 45.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 23.3 37.5 48.1 100.5 55.0 49.7 26.5 34.4 40.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 39.0 47.9 87.1 117.1 71.4 63.9 29.8 34.5 46.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 47.3 43.3 57.2 113.6 65.5 59.8 25.2 37.7 43.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 18.1 24.6 43.0 91.6 42.9 43.5 22.9 26.5 34.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 25.4 37.6 54.6 109.0 61.1 55.4 24.8 34.7 38.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 66.1 70.6 68.7 118.7 72.3 63.7 40.3 47.8 66.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 22.6 30.8 57.6 103.5 52.7 51.8 22.0 30.4 36.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 45.2 42.7 62.8 118.3 69.4 63.5 23.1 34.7 40.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 35.5 31.8 53.5 101.0 52.1 50.3 24.8 29.9 37.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 37.3 43.6 59.5 113.7 64.8 57.1 21.5 32.3 43.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 77.7 86.6 83.4 122.5 76.1 67.9 47.1 60.3 70.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 18.0 30.3 46.5 98.4 53.5 48.7 21.9 28.6 38.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------