***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.1 8.8 99.7 58.7 46.9 2.7 6.8 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.7 11.0 8.4 94.9 65.6 45.4 2.1 4.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.2 5.8 8.8 95.1 57.4 45.2 3.3 5.4 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.1 11.4 103.5 59.2 47.4 4.5 7.0 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.4 10.7 96.6 57.9 45.4 2.9 7.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.8 14.2 14.5 111.4 63.7 52.2 6.7 9.4 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 1.7 7.9 8.3 93.9 64.6 45.4 1.6 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.2 18.9 11.7 97.7 59.4 44.9 7.5 16.1 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.7 10.2 92.9 57.9 44.5 1.2 7.1 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.4 12.3 11.5 96.6 59.5 45.2 3.5 8.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.7 12.7 10.6 96.8 59.1 44.9 3.8 8.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.0 12.3 10.4 96.4 57.8 44.1 3.9 9.4 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.3 13.1 11.7 100.5 59.4 47.1 6.6 9.9 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.9 13.2 10.5 88.2 54.2 43.1 7.3 11.0 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.6 11.4 11.7 110.6 65.8 49.8 1.2 4.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.4 10.0 11.1 97.3 57.7 46.3 2.0 9.5 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.0 7.9 7.8 91.7 65.6 44.1 2.1 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 9.4 12.0 93.7 56.3 44.3 6.6 8.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.0 11.1 8.5 94.8 64.5 45.2 1.9 6.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.1 10.4 13.5 93.0 57.7 45.1 6.2 8.2 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.8 8.0 9.2 94.1 57.6 44.9 3.0 7.1 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.3 10.4 8.3 97.1 63.0 45.7 3.3 5.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.8 10.3 8.9 93.7 61.9 44.7 3.3 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.2 10.5 91.0 54.1 43.3 5.0 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.7 8.9 10.4 98.5 57.4 47.3 3.7 7.6 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.7 11.4 101.7 61.0 48.1 3.3 5.8 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.7 8.6 9.6 96.2 58.1 46.8 2.3 5.3 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.0 9.4 11.6 104.8 62.8 48.0 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.9 12.8 12.4 92.2 53.4 44.1 9.5 12.2 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.1 7.5 8.5 96.1 63.3 46.2 1.6 4.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------