***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 0.8 1.6 10.4 69.6 42.3 39.7 1.1 1.8 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 2.3 0.8 9.1 64.1 37.7 37.7 0.7 1.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 1.6 2.3 11.3 74.7 40.9 41.0 1.2 3.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.3 13.3 76.4 49.4 43.2 4.0 7.4 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.0 4.8 14.0 81.8 49.9 44.7 1.2 4.8 8.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.0 4.5 16.7 95.6 52.7 49.7 1.9 4.4 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 2.7 1.8 8.9 64.5 41.9 39.3 0.9 1.9 3.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.8 16.6 92.1 52.5 47.6 5.0 13.0 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.1 3.1 14.4 83.5 47.8 44.9 1.5 3.4 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.3 5.1 16.3 89.3 50.6 46.2 3.1 5.1 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.6 4.9 14.1 86.7 49.7 46.3 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.5 14.5 91.8 54.9 48.4 2.5 4.1 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.0 4.6 14.9 91.3 50.9 48.8 2.2 4.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.4 3.1 14.5 76.5 39.0 40.4 2.6 7.3 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.5 3.2 12.6 73.2 50.1 43.2 0.8 3.2 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.7 14.4 88.7 51.7 47.9 1.5 6.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.1 1.4 8.1 59.5 39.9 37.1 0.7 2.3 3.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.2 18.5 92.0 50.6 47.1 2.2 5.1 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.0 1.0 9.8 67.0 37.4 38.2 0.6 2.3 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.5 20.7 90.4 48.7 46.1 3.3 4.5 6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.8 1.6 12.4 77.5 42.9 42.4 1.4 2.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 0.8 0.6 8.4 59.6 37.1 36.0 0.5 1.8 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 1.1 1.6 11.2 71.9 38.7 39.6 0.9 2.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.5 5.6 15.3 84.1 46.0 44.0 1.8 6.7 9.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 4.9 2.1 12.5 72.0 40.3 40.4 0.9 3.5 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.2 14.5 90.9 54.5 48.7 1.0 2.1 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.7 2.6 11.5 70.6 41.9 40.2 0.6 3.6 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.3 3.9 13.2 77.6 52.6 44.1 2.2 3.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.4 8.4 19.6 92.3 48.9 47.0 3.9 8.6 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 2.8 0.8 9.7 67.2 40.0 39.1 0.4 1.2 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------