***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 14.6 18.9 22.3 168.5 82.6 74.6 4.6 6.7 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 13.7 20.1 19.3 151.2 81.1 66.6 3.9 7.6 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 18.8 28.7 25.3 191.3 89.0 79.9 1.7 9.7 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 18.2 23.5 26.4 188.2 89.2 79.9 5.0 7.4 17.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 17.7 27.9 27.6 194.5 91.3 82.4 5.2 9.5 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 12.3 21.3 26.4 209.7 91.6 85.0 2.7 5.2 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 13.0 13.0 17.8 137.7 74.0 63.5 2.0 7.1 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 28.6 38.3 31.0 205.7 92.8 85.9 11.1 14.6 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 15.7 27.0 29.5 212.5 94.7 86.8 2.2 7.0 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 14.2 28.5 32.3 216.0 94.7 87.4 3.1 12.4 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 14.2 20.9 27.3 204.2 92.4 83.7 1.8 5.8 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 11.8 14.6 26.7 203.1 90.9 84.8 2.8 5.4 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 13.5 18.9 26.0 195.8 89.4 83.5 3.6 7.8 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 25.4 50.4 32.5 215.8 95.1 84.5 3.2 14.5 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 17.2 22.7 22.2 179.6 83.0 75.6 2.9 7.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 14.2 21.4 25.9 201.3 90.5 82.9 4.6 6.8 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.7 16.1 130.1 71.0 60.0 2.1 7.1 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 16.7 32.8 36.0 221.8 95.6 88.5 3.6 9.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 15.5 19.6 21.7 168.2 85.7 71.3 3.0 8.6 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 11.2 19.0 38.1 195.6 90.4 85.3 3.1 8.1 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 20.6 31.1 27.0 203.2 93.7 84.2 2.2 4.2 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.2 10.3 18.0 140.6 73.0 62.0 5.8 8.0 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 15.1 23.7 25.5 193.7 91.0 78.6 3.0 7.8 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 21.1 43.3 32.5 220.2 95.7 86.5 4.8 11.4 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 14.3 24.9 25.2 167.2 84.0 76.2 0.9 4.3 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 14.5 17.8 25.4 192.3 88.9 85.0 2.2 4.4 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 13.5 17.1 23.3 159.2 79.9 73.0 1.9 5.3 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 18.0 26.9 24.8 197.2 88.1 79.7 2.0 4.1 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 20.3 45.6 37.9 218.4 95.0 88.3 6.2 14.4 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 14.9 19.8 20.6 159.5 82.6 69.8 3.6 7.2 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------