***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 10.2 10.1 9.3 -1.2 29.8 33.1 11.0 12.0 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 10.2 10.3 9.3 -1.1 30.7 33.7 10.6 11.7 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 10.5 10.4 9.3 -1.4 27.9 31.0 10.8 12.0 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.7 2.9 7.2 -1.3 31.3 34.3 2.9 4.4 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 10.7 10.5 7.5 -1.6 25.1 31.1 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 9.8 9.4 5.6 -1.8 21.3 29.5 10.0 11.2 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 10.0 10.1 9.3 -1.0 32.0 34.6 10.1 11.5 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 -0.6 -0.1 5.8 -1.9 22.5 27.5 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 10.6 10.5 8.0 -1.7 23.9 29.4 11.0 12.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 10.3 10.3 6.6 -1.9 22.6 27.6 10.7 12.2 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 10.6 10.3 7.2 -1.7 23.9 29.4 11.1 12.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 10.1 10.0 6.7 -1.8 22.9 28.5 10.3 11.6 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 10.7 10.7 6.4 -1.8 23.2 28.7 11.4 12.6 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 10.8 10.6 7.9 -1.8 25.8 29.0 11.0 12.4 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.6 10.8 8.0 -1.0 34.7 36.8 10.8 12.0 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 11.2 10.9 6.9 -1.7 23.3 29.7 11.6 12.7 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.6 9.8 9.2 -1.0 32.8 35.2 9.8 11.0 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 10.0 10.0 5.9 -2.1 22.4 26.7 10.4 11.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 10.1 10.1 9.4 -1.2 29.6 32.6 10.2 11.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 5.1 5.3 3.4 -2.1 23.1 25.9 6.2 6.8 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 10.7 10.6 8.8 -1.5 27.1 30.5 10.9 12.6 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 10.5 10.6 9.3 -1.1 30.4 34.1 10.9 11.7 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 10.7 10.6 9.2 -1.4 28.5 31.0 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 10.4 10.4 7.7 -1.9 23.9 28.0 11.4 12.0 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 10.5 10.3 7.8 -1.2 30.3 33.8 10.5 12.0 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 10.4 10.4 6.1 -1.7 22.8 28.9 11.0 11.8 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 10.4 10.7 8.6 -1.2 29.2 33.6 11.0 11.7 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 9.9 10.9 7.6 -1.3 30.4 34.1 11.1 12.1 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 4.9 5.4 4.9 -2.0 23.9 27.4 6.4 6.8 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 10.1 9.8 9.4 -1.2 30.0 33.3 10.2 11.6 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------